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Prediction markets for Her

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.38%chance

3411193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8143

1543

Will Kamala Harris resign in her first term?

Sep 19, 8:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.53%chance

266104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4592

218

Will Taylor Swift change her name if she marries?

Sep 1, 10:03 PMDec 14, 4:59 AM

13.31%chance

615933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2552

392

Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?

May 20, 12:23 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

83.3%chance

223866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2234

448

Will the president elected in 2024 complete his or her term?

Jan 23, 6:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.14%chance

403556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

911

Will Elizabeth Holmes serve at least 4 years of her prison sentence?

May 23, 11:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.12%chance

192170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1688

849

Aella finds husband via her $100k bounty?

Apr 22, 9:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.83%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

Will @shankypanky regain her prior glory?

Oct 15, 4:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

51137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will Taylor Swift use an electric plane for the majority of her air travel by 2035?

Mar 15, 8:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.02%chance

13827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

906

Will an official mugshot of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be published before her death?

Aug 27, 4:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.75%chance

16276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

835

Will Claudia Sheinbaum publicly advocate for Solar Geoengineering during her term as president of Mexico?

Oct 22, 10:49 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

56.25%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

882

Will "Having OCD is like living in North Korea (Her..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 19, 10:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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