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Prediction markets for Hermes

In 50 years, what will most cosmologists believe the age of the Universe is?

Aug 20, 9:02 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

111104

OptionProbability

13.787 ± 1 Gy

Infinite (Big Bounce)

Between 12.5 and 13 billion years

Other

resolves no

68

13

8

8

4

Will anyone offer to pay Eliezer Yudkowsky to write a steamy sex scene between Harry, Draco, and Hermoine?

Dec 10, 12:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.4%chance

23707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

938

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

29.82%chance

13556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

489

269

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Hermetica" before 2035?

Mar 17, 5:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91.43%chance

3323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

327

31

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn" before 2035?

Mar 26, 10:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

7276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

59

Which LLM Maker will have the largest Emotional Intelligence Benchmark Elo Score on https://eqbench.com on Jan 1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1109

OptionProbability

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

Nous Research (E.g. Hermes series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Other

44

32

5

5

5

5

5

Will Axel Dumas (CEO of Hermès) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 14, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.65%chance

2103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

36

Will the Hermeus Quarterhorse Mk 3 test vehicle become the world's fastest aircraft?

Mar 30, 10:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.92%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

88

Will Hans Herman-Hoppe show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2030?

May 5, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

Will Hermeus make an airframe that flies?

Oct 23, 1:44 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

68.95%chance

253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Quien va a ganar Gran hermano 2026 Argentina?

Mar 27, 10:44 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

Franco Poggio

Andrea del Boca

Brian Sarmiento

Cinzia Francischiello

Danelik Galazan

Daniela "Dani" de Lucía

Eduardo Carrera

Emanuel Di Gioia

Juan "Juanicar" Caruso

Jessica "La Maciel"

Lola "Lolo" Poggio

Lola Tomaszewski

Luana Fernández

Manuel "Manu" Ibero

Martín Rodríguez

Nazareno Pompei

Jennifer "Pincoya" Galvarini

Solange "Sol" Abraham

Catalina "Titi" Tcherkaski

Yanina Zilli

Yisela "Yipio" Pintos

Franco Zunino

33

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will the next neural network architectural discovery explicitly incorporate some kind of self-reflection?

Apr 18, 9:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.62%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

135

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