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Prediction markets for Hermes

In 50 years, what will most cosmologists believe the age of the Universe is?

Aug 20, 9:02 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

111104

OptionProbability

13.787 ± 1 Gy

Infinite (Big Bounce)

Between 12.5 and 13 billion years

Other

resolves no

68

13

8

8

4

Which CLI coding agent will be the most popular EOY2026? [add answers]

Jun 25, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28874

OptionProbability

Claude Code

Codex CLI

Hermes Agent

Other

Pi

Codebuff

Gemini CLI

OpenCode

Qwen Code

Cursor CLI

Warp

63

21

4

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

41.12%chance

16792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

334

Will anyone offer to pay Eliezer Yudkowsky to write a steamy sex scene between Harry, Draco, and Hermoine?

Dec 10, 12:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.4%chance

23707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

938

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn" before 2035?

Mar 26, 10:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.55%chance

8495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

234

43

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Hermetica" before 2035?

Mar 17, 5:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91.43%chance

3323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

327

31

Will Hermeus make an airframe that flies?

Oct 23, 1:44 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

89%chance

4191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

284

35

Which LLM Maker will have the largest Emotional Intelligence Benchmark Elo Score on https://eqbench.com on Jan 1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1109

OptionProbability

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

Nous Research (E.g. Hermes series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Other

44

32

5

5

5

5

5

Will Axel Dumas (CEO of Hermès) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 14, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.65%chance

2103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

36

Will the Hermeus Quarterhorse Mk 3 test vehicle become the world's fastest aircraft?

Mar 30, 10:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.92%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

88

Will Hans Herman-Hoppe show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2030?

May 5, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

Will the next neural network architectural discovery explicitly incorporate some kind of self-reflection?

Apr 18, 9:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44.35%chance

438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

126

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