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Prediction markets for Hermes

In 50 years, what will most cosmologists believe the age of the Universe is?

Aug 20, 9:02 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

111104

OptionProbability

13.787 ± 1 Gy

Infinite (Big Bounce)

Between 12.5 and 13 billion years

Other

resolves no

68

13

8

8

4

Will anyone offer to pay Eliezer Yudkowsky to write a steamy sex scene between Harry, Draco, and Hermoine?

Dec 10, 12:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.4%chance

23707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

938

Conditional on it all working out, in what year will Eliezer Yudkowsky be revived from cryo-preservation?

Aug 16, 2:57 PMAug 17, 3:59 AM

14407

OptionProbability

< 2100

2100 - 2200

Advancements in life extension tech obviates the need for this before he dies.

Other

2200 - 2300

2134

> 2300

51

17

14

13

2

2

1

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Hermetica" before 2035?

Mar 17, 5:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91.43%chance

3323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

327

31

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn" before 2035?

Mar 26, 10:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.23%chance

5241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

65

Which LLM Maker will have the largest Emotional Intelligence Benchmark Elo Score on https://eqbench.com on Jan 1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1109

OptionProbability

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

Nous Research (E.g. Hermes series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Other

44

32

5

5

5

5

5

Will Axel Dumas (CEO of Hermès) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 14, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.65%chance

2103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

36

Will Hans Herman-Hoppe show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2030?

May 5, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.28%chance

552

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

Will OpenAI lose the lead in AI continually for a period of at least 6 months during the next three years?

Dec 4, 7:06 PMJun 5, 3:59 AM

61.32%chance

445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

Will the Hermeus Quarterhorse Mk 2 test vehicle achieve autonomous supersonic flight?

Mar 30, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

116

Will the Hermeus Quarterhorse Mk 3 test vehicle become the world's fastest aircraft?

Mar 30, 10:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

116

Will Hermeus make an airframe that flies?

Oct 23, 1:44 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

49.51%chance

13

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

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