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Prediction markets for Heuristic

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.19%chance

7516049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12043

8303

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

Efficient full homomorphic encryption for frontier model training by 2030?

Dec 19, 1:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.88%chance

192878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

894

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

91%chance

231906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

824

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM

36.06%chance

81166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3996

2252

By what date will encoded reasoning via alien reasoning be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?

Oct 10, 11:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2369

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

34

29

28

27

26

25

24

17

0

What is the best way to make forward progress in theoretical physics?

May 20, 10:57 AMMay 11, 1:59 PM

11346

OptionProbability

String theory

Some other approach

Loop quantum gravity

Twistor theory

General work on quantum field theories

No progress is possible

Application of fisher information to physics

80

15

1

1

1

1

0

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Sep 15, 1:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

6251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

103

Does any organization, as of 6 May, 2023, have the capability to engage in practical time-travel?

May 8, 1:46 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

6.5%chance

6230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

124

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.5%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

87

Will "Parkinson's Heuristic: The Only Time To Do An..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 14, 3:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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