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Prediction markets for High Five

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.74%chance

9431761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4066

649

Will Alvea develop a drug that reaches the market by the end of 2026?

Feb 10, 12:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.41%chance

2611556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4424

630

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.53%chance

422182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

694

Will a South American country be the next world cup champion in 2026?

Nov 8, 5:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.48%chance

271491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1487

800

Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council in the next 5 years?

Nov 5, 3:13 AMNov 12, 4:59 AM

3.68%chance

141429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2195

908

London Bridge literally falls down in the next 5 years (like the rhyme)

Jan 17, 4:25 AMJan 17, 4:24 AM

5.12%chance

12959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

431

23

Will a new class of high-temperature superconductors be discovered within the next five years?

Aug 21, 9:26 PMAug 29, 3:59 AM

10%chance

11758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

937

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Does there exist a 3x3 magic square of square numbers?

Mar 8, 7:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.05%chance

8534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

671

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Mar 24, 2:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8363

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

66

51

40

22

7

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