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Prediction markets for High Five

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.63%chance

199507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7378

2976

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

95.11%chance

577494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4363

525

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will a South American country be the next world cup champion in 2026?

Nov 8, 5:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23%chance

313529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

808

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

81263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.35%chance

31051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11051

8806

Will a new class of high-temperature superconductors be discovered within the next five years?

Aug 21, 9:26 PMAug 29, 3:59 AM

8.91%chance

11908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

921

Will Sam Altman and Dario Amodei hold hands again, before 2030?

Feb 19, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61%chance

16837

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

800

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Does there exist a 3x3 magic square of square numbers?

Mar 8, 7:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.05%chance

8534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

671

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

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