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Prediction markets for High Performance Computing

Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?

Apr 12, 6:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2439292

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89.99%

50 - 59.99%

40 - 49.99%

60 - 69.99%

70 - 79.99%

10 - 19.99%

20 - 29.99%

30 - 39.99%

92

3

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

274155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

801

When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released.

Aug 7, 12:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62443

OptionProbability

2024, January to June

2024, July to December

2025

2028

2029

2023, October to December

2026

2027

2023, August to September

44

38

5

3

3

2

2

2

1

What is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?

Dec 18, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181190

OptionProbability

x >= $1B

$100K <= x < $1M

$1M <= x < $10M

$10M <= x < $100M

$0 <= x < $100K

$100M <= x < $1B

52

19

14

8

5

2

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will we see analog accelerators in consumer hardware by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.93%chance

14609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

926

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

982

Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?

May 28, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

10156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will the US implement testing and evaluation requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.27%chance

6100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

233

117

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