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Prediction markets for High Performance Computing

Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?

Apr 12, 6:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1723095

OptionProbability

70 - 79.99%

80 - 89.99%

60 - 69.99%

50 - 59.99%

40 - 49.99%

90 - 100%

20 - 29.99%

30 - 39.99%

10 - 19.99%

24

22

21

16

8

8

1

1

0

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

614993

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

37

25

13

9

6

6

3

0

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released.

Aug 7, 12:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62443

OptionProbability

2024, January to June

2024, July to December

2025

2028

2029

2023, October to December

2026

2027

2023, August to September

44

38

5

3

3

2

2

2

1

What is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?

Dec 18, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181190

OptionProbability

x >= $1B

$100K <= x < $1M

$1M <= x < $10M

$10M <= x < $100M

$0 <= x < $100K

$100M <= x < $1B

52

19

14

8

5

2

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Best AI systems will out-perform PhDs and top experts in most problem-solving tasks

Mar 24, 2:24 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6623

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

55

45

34

24

11

Will we see analog accelerators in consumer hardware by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.93%chance

14609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

926

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

Will the US implement testing and evaluation requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.27%chance

6100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

233

117

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