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Prediction markets for Hiring

Will the killer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson be revealed to have been hired by another party?

Dec 7, 7:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.06%chance

2212654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9682

103

Was the January 29, 2025 mid-air collision caused by a DEI hire?

Jan 30, 1:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.64%chance

5510283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

96

Will this market get Calaveras AI a hire by EOY 2025?

Aug 12, 7:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.59%chance

293914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13454

7433

Will Manifold hire me in 2025?

Feb 21, 9:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.93%chance

172868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2215

451

If Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney, they will win a Nobel Peace Prize.

Mar 15, 12:45 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.11%chance

72529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

41

If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?

Sep 24, 11:52 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

45.19%chance

252473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1498

1335

Will Salesforce stop hiring software engineers in 2025?

Jan 10, 4:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.39%chance

142280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3106

322

Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?

Sep 1, 1:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.94%chance

171788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2481

692

Will Amazon fully acquire, acqui‑hire, or own ≥ 50 % of Anthropic before 2029

Jun 10, 10:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.38%chance

131180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2180

459

Manifold Scouts: NFL Head Coach Survival Pool (2024-25 Offseason Hires)

Mar 11, 7:29 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

4529

OptionProbability

Ben Johnson - Chicago Bears

Mike Vrabel - New England Patriots

Aaron Glenn - New York Jets

Brian Schottenheimer - Dallas Cowboys

Liam Coen - Jacksonville Jaguars

Kellen Moore - New Orleans Saints

Pete Carroll - Las Vegas Raiders

32

16

12

12

11

11

7

Will "Hire (or become) a Thinking Assistant / Body ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 25, 1:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

85

Will we hire additional transactions team staff within 5 years?

Apr 5, 4:40 PMApr 5, 11:59 PM

14.65%chance

3117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

41

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