History News

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8819732

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

New York v Trump 2024

Tigray War

The Epstein Files

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?

Jul 31, 10:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8%chance

161737

OptionVotes

YES

445

125

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

1282

780

Britons' pride in British history increases by 2026?

Aug 12, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.2%chance

9263

OptionVotes

YES

1037

965

What's true about histories in our (quantum) universe?

Aug 12, 3:03 PMAug 12, 3:00 PM

5216

OptionProbability

Sum-over-histories (path integrals) represents fundamental ontology

Retrocausality shapes histories

All decohered branches are real (Many-Worlds)

Only one classical history is real; probabilities reflect ignorance

Macroscopic recoherence of distinct histories can occur

Superdeterminism underlies a single deterministic history

It is meaningless to talk about events with definite outcomes in the past when no observer observes them

We need to talk about histories in a different theoretical context because quantum theory will ultimately be overthrown

The past is definite; the future is not

Only consistent/decoherent histories have meaningful quantum probabilities

Decoherence plus quantum Darwinism is sufficient to derive quasi-classical histories conforming to our experiences

Objective collapse selects a single history (GRW/CSL)

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will the automated decipherment of enciphered historical manuscripts change history?

Apr 8, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.76%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will "A History of the Future, 2025-2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 18, 10:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18%chance

328

OptionVotes

YES

104

How good will this quantum branch be compared to other quantum branches with the same history up to 2023-01-27?

Jan 27, 7:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52%chance

622

OptionVotes

YES

133

127

Will AI analyze a convo history I have with someone to figure out exactly why someone distanced from you by EOY2026

Jan 9, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.44%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will prediction markets as concept and its history record become extinct before 2100?

Sep 15, 1:27 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

7.25%chance

OptionVotes

YES

102

Will "To Understand History, Keep Former Population..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 11:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Britons' pride in British history increases by 2026?

What's true about histories in our (quantum) universe?

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Will the automated decipherment of enciphered historical manuscripts change history?

Will "A History of the Future, 2025-2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

How good will this quantum branch be compared to other quantum branches with the same history up to 2023-01-27?

Will AI analyze a convo history I have with someone to figure out exactly why someone distanced from you by EOY2026

Will prediction markets as concept and its history record become extinct before 2100?

Will "To Understand History, Keep Former Population..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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