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Prediction markets for HIV

Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?

May 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47%chance

478638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?

Jan 21, 1:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.27%chance

454229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

859

Will HIV be eradicated in humans before 2030?

Feb 7, 6:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

4.48%chance

132363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3131

790

Will an mRNA HIV vaccine pass Phase 2 trials by 2025

Nov 7, 6:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.97%chance

181374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

819

Did HIV come from a laboratory?

Jan 5, 8:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.14%chance

131043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

405

146

By the start of 2026, will at least 1000 people have been permanently cured of HIV?

Nov 24, 7:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

19.19%chance

32987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

718

Which applications of CRISPR technology will achieve regulatory approval for use in humans by 2030?

Mar 8, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

15721

OptionProbability

Cancer treatment

Targeting viral infections (e.g., HIV)

Enhancing human physical abilities

Anti-aging therapies

65

53

34

33

By the start of 2026, will at least 100 people have been permanently cured of HIV?

Nov 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

35.38%chance

23715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

851

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Oct 12, 10:22 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

80.97%chance

7313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

241

82

Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?

Jan 11, 2:26 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.94%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

73

HIV Vaccine fully approved by FDA and commercially available before 2035?

Jun 11, 7:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.5%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

77

Will there be more than one million new HIV infections globally in 2025?

Mar 28, 1:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.7%chance

213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

83

60

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