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Prediction markets for HLE

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

182920

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030-2034

2025

50

31

6

5

5

2

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62655

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

SWE-Bench

Other

FrontierMath

ARC-AGI

36

16

13

13

12

10

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91702

OptionProbability

2027

2029

2028

2030-2034

2026

2025

51

16

14

14

4

1

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Jun 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4928

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2026-2027

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

41

36

5

5

5

5

5

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

7.18%chance

12858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

395

76

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 12:59 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

79.12%chance

7734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

740

85

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.3%chance

7267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

351

75

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.97%chance

8215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

76

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.53%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

190

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.26%chance

7191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

112

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