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Prediction markets for HLE

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

152110

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030-2034

37

17

16

13

9

8

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

20.37%chance

11817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

107

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 12:59 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

75.07%chance

6684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

690

100

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5445

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2029

2027

2028

2026

2025

28

23

21

20

5

3

Grok 4 Heavy gets on Humanity's Last Exam leaderboard?

Jul 18, 2:55 AMSep 2, 2:49 AM

24.21%chance

2401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

57

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.97%chance

2190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

190

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.43%chance

6185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

75

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

77.3%chance

4147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

231

100

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

5118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

74

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Jun 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28

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