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Horizon News

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

19

7 months ago

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6541470

OptionProbability

3-3.5 months

3.5-4 months

<3 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

18

18

17

17

8

6

5

4

3

3

[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.99%chance

6814585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8681

3642

Will GPT-5.4 outperform Claude Opus 4.6 at METR 50% time horizon?

Mar 5, 9:16 PMApr 4, 8:15 PM

35.5%chance

9914462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1348

742

AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?

Dec 9, 4:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.89%chance

181726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1268

135

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.62%chance

191656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

773

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

Feb 18, 6:17 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

37.73%chance

111223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

778

Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?

Mar 6, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.08%chance

7457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

914

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

36.71%chance

8451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2028?

Dec 20, 1:40 PMJan 1, 1:38 PM

10378

OptionProbability

128+ hours

64-128 hours

32-64 hours

8-16 hours

16-32 hours

<8 hours

82

8

4

2

2

2

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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