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Horizon News

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

19

5 months ago

Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?

Apr 13, 1:30 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

7054366

OptionProbability

6 to 8 hours

8 to 16 hours

>=16 hours

2 to 4 hours

4 to 6 hours

<2 hours

56

38

4

1

1

0

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5431625

OptionProbability

<3 months

4-4.5 months

3.5-4 months

4.5-5 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

3-3.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

17

14

12

12

12

10

7

7

4

4

[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.15%chance

629866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5531

4491

AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?

Dec 9, 4:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85%chance

151580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1338

122

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.34%chance

10751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

36.71%chance

8451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

AI time horizon of 10 hours by September 1st 2026?

Dec 9, 4:54 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

80.22%chance

12308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

21

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?

Dec 20, 1:36 PMJan 1, 1:33 PM

7262

OptionProbability

16-32 Hours

8-16 Hours

32-64 Hours

4-8 Hours

Other

45

29

16

6

4

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

New Horizons does a flyby that gets a good image of another Kuiper Belt Object (see example)?

Sep 20, 11:26 PMDec 25, 12:22 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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