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Horizon News

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

19

1 year ago

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7647518

OptionProbability

3.5-4 months

3-3.5 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

<3 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

25

20

17

14

7

5

4

3

3

2

AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?

Dec 9, 4:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.03%chance

283212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

453

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.68%chance

262551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1673

598

Horizon: METR 80% task horizon >= 16 hours before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92.37%chance

22500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3500

434

Polymarket has some METR time horizon market before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.08%chance

72271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2947

763

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.28%chance

21260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2260

816

METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?

Mar 6, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.93%chance

14762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

833

Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

30.6%chance

9644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2028?

Dec 20, 1:40 PMJan 1, 1:38 PM

10505

OptionProbability

128+ hours

16-32 hours

64-128 hours

32-64 hours

8-16 hours

<8 hours

55

30

7

4

2

2

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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