Hour of AI News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.54%chance

465679880

OptionVotes

YES

17813

9130

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.44%chance

15835470

OptionVotes

YES

1721

1121

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

YES

2522

563

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.7%chance

207035

OptionVotes

YES

14677

6813

Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in under 1 hour, by EOY 2027?

Apr 10, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.81%chance

365525

OptionVotes

YES

1464

792

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

YES

10081

9577

Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.52%chance

151637

OptionVotes

YES

171

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

Mar 18, 2:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15784

OptionProbability

Singularity

Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 3 movies are publicly available

At least 100 AI-generated original movies, more than 2 hours long, are publicly available and watched by 100k people each

A studio quality 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover exists

Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 100 movies are publicly available

A 120 minute Star Trek/Star Wars crossover exists and has Imdb score >=6

Netflix stock price lower than $50 or higher than $5,000

AI generated remakes of at least 100 cinematic movies are publicly available and watched by at least 100k people each

Will an AI system capable of doing tasks that take humans eight hours as determined by METR.org, exist by 2027

Apr 25, 4:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.33%chance

8488

OptionVotes

YES

315

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Mar 24, 2:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7264

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

Will the first AI to pass a 2-hour adversarial Turing test primarily use text?

Oct 2, 2:58 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM

70.01%chance

434

OptionVotes

YES

143

Hour of AI News

Prediction markets for Hour of AI

Prediction markets for Hour of AI

Prediction markets for Hour of AI

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in under 1 hour, by EOY 2027?

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

Will an AI system capable of doing tasks that take humans eight hours as determined by METR.org, exist by 2027

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Will the first AI to pass a 2-hour adversarial Turing test primarily use text?

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