House Resolution News

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

15770618

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.08%chance

20751265

OptionVotes

YES

3275

1301

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

16649049

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

33.07%chance

589366

OptionVotes

YES

1923

1018

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Jan 27, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.68%chance

505971

OptionVotes

YES

3000

768

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.09%chance

124921

OptionVotes

YES

5899

3086

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

YES

1099

834

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

57.53%chance

391946

OptionVotes

YES

1165

674

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

1194

838

Number of Harvard Corporation members who resign before November 15th, 2025

May 22, 4:15 AMNov 14, 11:59 PM

52.61%chance

4896

OptionVotes

YES

1054

949

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

73.87%chance

16417

OptionVotes

YES

1100

950

Will I conclude, at the end of 2025, that this year has been better than 2024?

Jan 4, 4:33 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

49.93%chance

5126

OptionVotes

YES

1001

999

House Resolution News

Prediction markets for House Resolution

Prediction markets for House Resolution

Prediction markets for House Resolution

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Number of Harvard Corporation members who resign before November 15th, 2025

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

Will I conclude, at the end of 2025, that this year has been better than 2024?

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