Housing Starts News

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Jul 9, 11:03 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

313968

OptionProbability

Vacant House seats at start of term

Market chaos

Bonus market chaos

Bonus underlying chaos

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

New election ordered for any seat

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Any member seated who was not the winner

Any major news organization retracts a call

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

Any member-elect changes parties

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Any election delayed

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

May 16, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.18%chance

333130

OptionVotes

YES

1155

936

Democrats representing California at start of 120th House term?

Oct 26, 5:08 PMFeb 1, 5:05 PM

62867

OptionProbability

47 - 49

44 - 46

50 - 52

Below 35

35 - 37

38 - 40

41 - 43

Above 52

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

33.64%chance

42768

OptionVotes

YES

1404

712

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38%chance

432617

OptionVotes

YES

1277

783

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

1374

730

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

YES

1221

822

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

Will another congressperson have pulled a "George Santos" before November 2028?

Oct 19, 12:12 PMNov 2, 3:59 AM

43.06%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

1150

870

Will June 2026 U.S. housing starts be at least 1.4 million (SAAR)?

Jun 9, 1:16 AMJul 17, 12:25 PM

63%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will July 2026 U.S. housing starts be at least 1.4 million (SAAR)?

Jun 14, 3:14 PMAug 18, 12:25 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

When will I get my Virpil flight yoke?

Dec 17, 8:15 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

OptionProbability

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Housing Starts News

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

Democrats representing California at start of 120th House term?

Clarity Act will pass in September

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Will another congressperson have pulled a "George Santos" before November 2028?

Will June 2026 U.S. housing starts be at least 1.4 million (SAAR)?

Will July 2026 U.S. housing starts be at least 1.4 million (SAAR)?

When will I get my Virpil flight yoke?

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