Housing Starts News

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Oct 22, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

134686

OptionVotes

YES

1062

942

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.06%chance

43710

OptionVotes

YES

2836

353

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

May 16, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.16%chance

323030

OptionVotes

YES

1055

947

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Jul 9, 11:03 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

262788

OptionProbability

Vacant House seats at start of term

Market chaos

Bonus market chaos

Bonus underlying chaos

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

New election ordered for any seat

Any member seated who was not the winner

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Any major news organization retracts a call

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

Any member-elect changes parties

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Any election delayed

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

392423

OptionVotes

YES

1363

733

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.6%chance

391474

OptionVotes

YES

1020

938

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

1759

570

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

YES

1221

822

Democrats representing California at start of 120th House term?

Oct 26, 5:08 PMFeb 1, 5:05 PM

3656

OptionProbability

41 - 43

44 - 46

47 - 49

50 - 52

35 - 37

38 - 40

Above 52

Below 35

How many cleaning jobs will my Roomba complete in February 2026?

Jan 23, 7:46 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

2204

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 4

Above 8

Above 12

Above 16

Above 20

Above 24

100

Will another congressperson have pulled a "George Santos" before November 2028?

Oct 19, 12:12 PMNov 2, 3:59 AM

43.06%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

1150

870

When will I get my Virpil flight yoke?

Dec 17, 8:15 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

OptionProbability

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Housing Starts News

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Democrats representing California at start of 120th House term?

How many cleaning jobs will my Roomba complete in February 2026?

Will another congressperson have pulled a "George Santos" before November 2028?

When will I get my Virpil flight yoke?

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