Housing Starts News

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Oct 22, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

134686

OptionVotes

YES

1062

942

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

May 16, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.16%chance

323030

OptionVotes

YES

1055

947

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Jul 9, 11:03 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

272798

OptionProbability

Vacant House seats at start of term

Market chaos

Bonus market chaos

Bonus underlying chaos

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

Any major news organization retracts a call

New election ordered for any seat

Any member seated who was not the winner

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

Any member-elect changes parties

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Any election delayed

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

392423

OptionVotes

YES

1363

733

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.6%chance

391474

OptionVotes

YES

1020

938

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

151045

OptionVotes

YES

1393

720

Will Idaho House Bill 752 (A trans bathroom bill) be enacted into law?

Mar 22, 7:59 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

72.76%chance

4830

OptionVotes

YES

1635

612

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

YES

1221

822

Democrats representing California at start of 120th House term?

Oct 26, 5:08 PMFeb 1, 5:05 PM

3656

OptionProbability

41 - 43

44 - 46

47 - 49

50 - 52

35 - 37

38 - 40

Above 52

Below 35

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

Will another congressperson have pulled a "George Santos" before November 2028?

Oct 19, 12:12 PMNov 2, 3:59 AM

43.06%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

1150

870

When will I get my Virpil flight yoke?

Dec 17, 8:15 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

OptionProbability

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Housing Starts News

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will Idaho House Bill 752 (A trans bathroom bill) be enacted into law?

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Democrats representing California at start of 120th House term?

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Will another congressperson have pulled a "George Santos" before November 2028?

When will I get my Virpil flight yoke?

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