Housing Starts News

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Oct 22, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.16%chance

259146

OptionVotes

YES

1534

652

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

77418

OptionVotes

YES

7000

143

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

YES

3137

320

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Jul 9, 11:03 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

374884

OptionProbability

Market chaos

Vacant House seats at start of term

Bonus market chaos

Bonus underlying chaos

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

New election ordered for any seat

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Any member seated who was not the winner

Any major news organization retracts a call

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Any election delayed

Any member-elect changes parties

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

May 16, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.18%chance

333130

OptionVotes

YES

1155

936

Democrats representing California at start of 120th House term?

Oct 26, 5:08 PMFeb 1, 5:05 PM

63015

OptionProbability

47 - 49

Below 35

44 - 46

50 - 52

35 - 37

38 - 40

41 - 43

Above 52

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38%chance

432617

OptionVotes

YES

1277

783

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.6%chance

391474

OptionVotes

YES

1020

938

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.41%chance

81203

OptionVotes

YES

1353

742

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

Will another congressperson have pulled a "George Santos" before November 2028?

Oct 19, 12:12 PMNov 2, 3:59 AM

43.06%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

1150

870

When will I get my Virpil flight yoke?

Dec 17, 8:15 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

OptionProbability

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Housing Starts News

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Prediction markets for Housing Starts

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

2026 Midterms Election Weirdness

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

Democrats representing California at start of 120th House term?

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Will another congressperson have pulled a "George Santos" before November 2028?

When will I get my Virpil flight yoke?

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