How to Have Sex News

YES

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Fair elections in 2028

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

US national bitcoin reserve created

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

trump gets hospitalized

US Invasion of any North/South American country

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

McDonald's reopens in Russia

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump and Obama shake hands

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Dow rises above 65,000

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Joe Biden dies

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

10% fewer government agencies

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump gets covid (again)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New national park created

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

American Manned Lunar Landing

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump gets shot

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Anthony Fauci is indicted

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Another pandemic

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

The department of education gets desolved

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

War is declared against another nation

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Approval < 25%

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

south park is canceled/discontinued

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

A national ban on gender-affirming care

"covfefe" posted again

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

YES

Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

Gene Editing Therapies

Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

Regenerative Medicine

Brain-Computer Interfaces

Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes

Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

Solar panels with 40% efficiency

Bioprinting

Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)

Human-level AGI

Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

Space-Based Manufacturing

A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

Seafloor Mining Robots

Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

Quantum Computing Applications

Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy

Graphene semiconductor electronics

Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

Lunar Bases

Moon base

Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)

Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure

Britain finishes HS2

More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)

Photonic computing

Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

Commercial asteroid mining

Datacenters in space

Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

Hypersonic commercial passenger travel

Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.

Joywire

Nuclear powered cargo ships

Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

Fast travel across the globe

Commercial fusion power

AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts

Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects

Mars Base

City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere

Nuclear Thermal Rockets

Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)

Cryonics with Successful Revival

Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

Changing the height of an adult at will

Von Neumann Probe

Orbital Habitats

Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

Fusion Drives

Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

Human Mind Uploading

Space-to-Earth power stations

Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

Direct Cognitive Collaboration

Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

A skyhook space structure in LEO

Human sex change at chromosome level

Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

Changing a person's race at will

Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

Vacuum Airships

Time travel to the future

Commercial cold fusion

Space Elevator

Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

Antimatter bombs

Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

1% Dyson sphere coverage

Faster then Light Propulsion

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

On Earth

Before 2045

Before we have an universal flu vaccine

Before me

Before WW3

In the US

Before we get ASI

After his presidency

Before we get AGI

Natural causes

In the Eastern time zone

In a hospital

When BTC is below $100.000

in bed

Closer to Venus than to Mars

When BTC is above $80.000

When TRUMP Coin is below $1.0

Surrounded by his friends and loved ones

At or greater than 20m above sea level (using https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-nb18/United-States/ to verify if necessary)

In his sleep

In Florida

Closer to Venus than to the Sun

After my Manifold account has been inactive for 12+ months

After he announced he is sick

Before 2030

Mar-a-Lago

Before potato2017 gets a world record in any competitive achievement leaderboard in the online game tetr.io

In a way that Manifold finds suspicious, according to a Manifold poll

Within 6 months of leaving office

Closer to Mars than to the Sun

After 2035

While in office

By assassination

In New Jersey

While mercury is in retrograde

After 2040

In front of a camera

The White House

On a Sunday

On a Monday

On a Tuesday

On a Wednesday

On a Thursday

On a Friday

On a Saturday

Outside (not in a vehicle or building)

2030

While doing a speech

With a bullet inside his body

2029

During WW3

2031

2032

2033

On an airplane

2035

2037

2034

2035

On TV

2038

Killed because a deal went sideways

2027

2028

2039

2026

After J D Vance dies

In Qatar

While having sex

On a gold toilet

In Russia

Q2, 2026

He will become effectively immortal

Food poisoning

Before ending World Cup 2026

In Greenland

While doing a funny dance

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

YES

23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.)

22nd (Limits the number of times a person can be elected president.)

11th (Makes states immune from suits from out-of-state citizens and foreigners not living within the state borders; lays the foundation for state sovereign immunity.)

26th (Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens 18 years of age or older, to vote on account of age.)

20th (Changes dates on which terms of president and VP, and of members of Congress, begin and end, to January 20 and January 3 respectively. States that if president-elect dies before taking office, VP–elect is to be inaugurated president)

25th (Addresses succession to the presidency and establishes procedures both for filling a vacancy in the office of the vice president and responding to presidential disabilities.)

27th (Delays laws affecting Congressional salary from taking effect until after the next election of representatives.)

6th (Protects the right to a speedy public trial by jury, to notification of criminal accusations, to confront the accuser, to obtain witnesses and to retain counsel.)

12th (Revises presidential election procedures by having the president and vice president elected together as opposed to the vice president being the runner up in the presidential election.)

3rd (Restricts the quartering of soldiers in private homes.)

5th (Sets out rules for indictment by grand jury and eminent domain, protects the right to due process, and prohibits self-incrimination and double jeopardy.)

15th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race, color or previous condition of servitude.)

24th (Prohibits the revocation of voting rights due to the non-payment of a poll tax or any other tax.)

1st (Protects freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and the right to petition the government.)

4th (Prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures and sets out requirements for search warrants based on probable cause.)

7th (Provides for the right to a jury trial in civil lawsuits.)

8th (Prohibits excessive fines and excessive bail, as well as cruel and unusual punishment.)

9th (States that rights not enumerated in the Constitution are retained by the people.)

10th (States that the federal government possesses only those powers delegated, or enumerated, to it through the Constitution, and that all other powers are reserved to the States, or to the people.)

13th (Abolishes slavery and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime.)

17th (Establishes the direct election of United States senators by popular vote.)

21st (Repeals the 18th Amendment and makes it a federal offense to transport or import intoxicating liquors into U.S. states and territories where such is prohibited by law.)

2nd (Protects the right to keep and bear arms.)

14th (Defines citizenship, contains the Privileges or Immunities Clause, the Due Process Clause, and the Equal Protection Clause, and deals with post–Civil War issues.)

16th (Permits Congress to levy an income tax without apportioning it among the various states or basing it on the United States Census.)

No FTX-sized scandal

sexual harassment

OpenAI Board

Other

MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations

Nick Bostrom racist email

Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes

YES

Immigration (6,725)

Drug Offenses (63,376)

Weapons, Explosives, Arson (31,700)

Burglary, Larceny, Property Offenses (7,195)

Extortion, Fraud, Bribery (5,626)

Homicide, Aggravated Assault, and Kidnapping Offenses (4,998)

Robbery (3,717)

Miscellaneous (934)

Other: Banking and Insurance, Counterfeit, Embezzlement, Continuing Criminal Enterprise, Courts or Corrections, National Security (1,084)