How to Have Sex News

NO

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Approval < 35%

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

trump gets hospitalized

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Fair elections in 2028

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

USA experiences a recession.

Vances have another kid

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Dow rises above 65,000

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump visits Africa

Congress overrides a presidential veto

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

A major war in Asia occurs

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Joe Biden dies

Trump says a racial slur

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump and Obama shake hands

Tesla

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

New national park created

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Repeal obamacare

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Anthony Fauci is indicted

JD Vance elected President

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

War is declared against another nation

10% fewer government agencies

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump gets covid (again)

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Approval < 25%

American Manned Lunar Landing

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump gets shot

54 or more Republican senate seats

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Record level unemployment

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump dies

Another pandemic

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump runs for a third term

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump is assassinated

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump is seen shirtless

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Starship lands on Mars

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Constitutional Amendment

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

YES

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

YES

Gender-affirming care for minors

LGBT+ topics in schools

Conversion therapy

Transgender athletes

Coverage of gender-affirming care

Anti-discrimination laws

LGBT+ people in the military

Gender-affirming care for adults

Editing gender markers on government documents

Parental notification of LGBT+ students

Drag shows and/or gender-non conforming expression

Gender dysphoria in the ADA

Transgender bathroom rights

Same-sex marriage

it exists

uploaded onto youtube

uses royalty-free music

has hard coded subtitles on at least 1 frame

sex scene

Fails the bechdel test

It contains the exact line, "All this time, we've been thinking rationally, when we should have been thinking rationalussy."

runtime of at least 10 minutes

Wario appears in the movie at least once

features AI-generated video

Rana (or a character clearly inspired by Rana) appears in a role with dialogue

there's multiple actors

Rana voices a character

The current summary from the Rationalussy Wiki is "shockingly accurate", as judged by @PlasmaBallin

it's debuted during Summer Camp or Manifest (2024)

Inventing a meat substitute that replaces $1B/year of meat production

Locking up every gang tattoo haver in El Salvador to reduce homicide rate from 100 to 2.4

Finding a gusher that produces 10 million barrels of oil over 10 years

Inventing a way to make your factory 10% more efficient and then firing 10% of its workforce (100 workers).

repealing occupational licensing for haircuts in city of 100,000 people

the average act of consensual sex

Having at least one child

Becoming vegan for one year

donating $10 to GiveWell

Spending $10 million on a yacht instead of investing it in SPY

The average rape

Donating $10 to an average political campaign in the US

Requiring US doctors to get an unrelated bachelor's degree before starting medical school for no reason

the average homicide

YES

Event makes a profit

Relationship starts at Slutcon, still dating in Oct 2026

Anal sex occurs

Someone is kicked out

Weather Forecaster

Entertainment

Sex

Other

Therapy

There will be nothing that satisfies the criteria for highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI

Politics

Science

Career

Education

Coaching

Community