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Prediction markets for HSR

Will the SF to LA segment of the HSR be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

4017145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16703

3098

Will the California HSR meet its Bay Area<->LA ridership goals by 2030 (8.5M/y)

Jan 6, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.49%chance

121254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

917

146

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.74%chance

121114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

913

Will the California HSR from LA to SF be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.48%chance

231046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

342

124

Will the Texas HSR project have 6 million annual passengers by 2029

Jan 6, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.93%chance

6921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

444

56

Will the California HSR complete the Fresno to San Jose segment by 2030?

Mar 13, 6:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.45%chance

10677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

484

71

Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail?

Mar 25, 5:07 AMMar 25, 5:02 AM

16662

OptionProbability

Moonbase

High Speed Rail

51

49

Will the SF to LA segment of the California HSR be completed by 2050?

Mar 13, 6:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.98%chance

5471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

69

69

Will the California HSR meet its Bay Area<->LA revenue goals by 2030 ($683M/y)

Jan 6, 6:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.85%chance

8432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

277

50

Will Starship land a human on Mars before California HSR transports a paying passenger to Bakersfield?

Sep 24, 4:41 PMJan 24, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

5275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will the California HSR meet any of its ridership or revenue goals by 2030

Jan 6, 6:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.01%chance

5222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

60

Will the San Jose to San Francisco segment of the HSR be completed by 2050?

Mar 13, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.39%chance

6173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

333

162

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