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Prediction markets for HSR

Will the SF to LA segment of the HSR be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.31%chance

161095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

987

891

Will the California HSR meet its Bay Area<->LA ridership goals by 2030 (8.5M/y)

Jan 6, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.88%chance

12954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

617

155

Will the Texas HSR project have 6 million annual passengers by 2029

Jan 6, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.93%chance

6921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

444

56

Will the California HSR complete the Fresno to San Jose segment by 2030?

Mar 13, 6:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.45%chance

10677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

484

71

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will the California HSR from LA to SF be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.81%chance

13447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

163

Will the SF to LA segment of the California HSR be completed by 2050?

Mar 13, 6:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.06%chance

5446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

73

65

Will the California HSR meet its Bay Area<->LA revenue goals by 2030 ($683M/y)

Jan 6, 6:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.85%chance

8432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

277

50

Will there be a high-speed rail system connecting Sacramento to San Diego by end of 2040?

Jun 18, 10:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.81%chance

14343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

155

Will Starship land a human on Mars before California HSR transports a paying passenger to Bakersfield?

Sep 24, 4:41 PMJan 24, 10:59 PM

14.25%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

41

Will the San Jose to San Francisco segment of the HSR be completed by 2050?

Mar 13, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.27%chance

6166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

298

169

Will the California HSR meet any of its ridership or revenue goals by 2030

Jan 6, 6:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.21%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

74

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