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Prediction markets for HSR

Will the SF to LA segment of the HSR be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

161607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

466

Will the California HSR meet its Bay Area<->LA ridership goals by 2030 (8.5M/y)

Jan 6, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.49%chance

121254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

917

146

Will the Texas HSR project have 6 million annual passengers by 2029

Jan 6, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.93%chance

6921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

444

56

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.25%chance

7691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

913

Will the California HSR complete the Fresno to San Jose segment by 2030?

Mar 13, 6:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.45%chance

10677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

484

71

Will the California HSR from LA to SF be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.67%chance

17624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

317

131

Will the SF to LA segment of the California HSR be completed by 2050?

Mar 13, 6:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.32%chance

5461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

61

Will the California HSR meet its Bay Area<->LA revenue goals by 2030 ($683M/y)

Jan 6, 6:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.85%chance

8432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

277

50

Will Starship land a human on Mars before California HSR transports a paying passenger to Bakersfield?

Sep 24, 4:41 PMJan 24, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

5275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will the San Jose to San Francisco segment of the HSR be completed by 2050?

Mar 13, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.27%chance

6166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

298

169

Will the California HSR meet any of its ridership or revenue goals by 2030

Jan 6, 6:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.21%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

74

Which station in Jet Lag Taiwan: Rail Rush will have the most chips at game end?

Mar 13, 3:06 AMApr 30, 2:17 AM

214

OptionProbability

Taipei Main Station TR & HSR

Xinwuri TR & Taichung HSR

Xinzuoying TR & Zuoying HSR

Nangang TR & HSR

Banqiao TR & HSR

Liujia TR & Hsinchu HSR

Fengfu TR & Miaoli HSR

Shalun TR & Tainan HSR

Badu TR

Zhongli TR

Hsinchu TR

Zhunan TR

Changhua TR

Tianzhong TR

Zhongzhou TR

Sandiaoling TR

Su'aoxin TR

Other

13

7

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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