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Prediction markets for Hugging Face Models

Will we be able to print a smart humanoid bot at home by 2030?

Jul 12, 4:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

252164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1982

505

Will a criminal investigation into OpenAI over the Hugging Face breach be publicly confirmed before 2028?

Jul 23, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.79%chance

141040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

636

When will Qwen-Image-2.0 weights become publicly available?

Feb 11, 5:07 AMJul 1, 4:06 AM

4528

OptionProbability

July 1, 2027 or later

Jan 1, 2027 – June 30, 2027

July 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026

Before July 1, 2026

42

41

11

6

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Jan 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.15%chance

10392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

Will Alibaba publish open weights for a Qwen 4 model on Hugging Face by November 25, 2026?

Oct 24, 9:54 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

60.77%chance

9348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

64

Which lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Text leaderboard on November 30, 2026?

Nov 2, 4:26 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

1320

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

Meta

xAI

Other

60

30

4

2

2

2

Will credible evidence show that OpenAI deliberately staged the July 2026 Hugging Face incident by January 1, 2027?

Aug 8, 4:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.35%chance

2112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

96

Will Minimax-H3 become unavailable on HuggingFace in any state in the US before 2027?

Aug 5, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.54%chance

7111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

17

When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?

Oct 5, 10:04 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

481

OptionProbability

Oct 13 to Oct 19

By Oct 12, 2026

Oct 20 to Oct 31

Nov 1 to Nov 15

Not by Nov 15, 2026

76

6

6

6

6

Will the HappyHorse-1.0 weights become publicly available before EOY 2026?

Apr 9, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

0

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