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Prediction markets for Human Behavior

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.1%chance

7636038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

731

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.25%chance

9531274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

922

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

87.72%chance

14312669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3353

1329

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.93%chance

286210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

946

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.01%chance

171956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

10

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will AI be able to feel emotions before janary 1st 2050

Jan 9, 9:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.81%chance

191060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1339

747

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Is collective human ethical behavior possible on big tasks?

Jun 14, 12:33 PM

120

Which statement about the influence of genes on human behavior is more correct?

Aug 14, 1:41 PM

30

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