Human Behavior News

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

28379

3002

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.09%chance

9631706

OptionVotes

YES

1322

1269

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

1492

670

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

87%chance

14512749

OptionVotes

YES

3195

1352

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.03%chance

738853

OptionVotes

YES

2588

1201

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11%chance

286231

OptionVotes

YES

1299

934

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.22%chance

192163

OptionVotes

YES

900

Will AI be able to feel emotions before janary 1st 2050

Jan 9, 9:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.59%chance

191110

OptionVotes

YES

1289

776

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Which statement about the influence of genes on human behavior is more correct?

Aug 14, 1:41 PM

Is collective human ethical behavior possible on big tasks?

Jun 14, 12:33 PM

120

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Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Will AI be able to feel emotions before janary 1st 2050

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Which statement about the influence of genes on human behavior is more correct?

Is collective human ethical behavior possible on big tasks?

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