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Prediction markets for Human Last Exam

Which of FrontierMath and Humanity's Last Exam will be saturated (>80%) first?

Jan 24, 4:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5623312

OptionProbability

FrontierMath

Humanity's Last Exam

70

30

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.33%chance

7318177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2087

479

When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)

Feb 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

458845

OptionProbability

2026

2027

later / never

2028

2029

2025

2030

53

32

5

4

3

2

2

Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?

Feb 3, 1:14 AMJun 16, 3:59 AM

16.14%chance

468674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2280

439

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

182920

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030-2034

2025

50

31

6

5

5

2

Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?

Nov 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.98%chance

162596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2997

334

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2029?

Jun 12, 5:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.73%chance

81057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

883

11

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 80% by what year?

Jun 12, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4863

OptionProbability

EOY 2030

EOY 2027

EOY 2028

EOY 2029

EOY 2026

89

83

83

83

76

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 12:59 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

79.12%chance

7734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

740

85

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 90% by what year?

Jun 12, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16430

OptionProbability

EOY 2030

EOY 2029

EOY 2028

EOY 2027

EOY 2026

79

78

76

62

16

Will "About 30% of Humanity’s Last Exam chemistry/b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.69%chance

3320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

958

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.53%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

190

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