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Prediction markets for Human Last Exam

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.59%chance

7217103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?

Feb 3, 1:14 AMJun 16, 3:59 AM

16.14%chance

468674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2280

439

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

162610

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030-2034

2025

42

19

17

10

9

4

Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?

Nov 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.98%chance

162596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2997

334

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81602

OptionProbability

2027

2029

2028

2030-2034

2026

2025

36

22

19

17

5

1

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2027?

Jun 12, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.5%chance

141037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

461

22

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2028?

Jun 12, 5:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.39%chance

7686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

22

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 90% by what year?

Jun 12, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11336

OptionProbability

EOY 2030

EOY 2029

EOY 2028

EOY 2027

EOY 2026

70

68

62

58

38

Will "About 30% of Humanity’s Last Exam chemistry/b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.69%chance

3320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

958

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.81%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

56

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 80% by what year?

Jun 12, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4163

OptionProbability

EOY 2030

EOY 2028

EOY 2029

EOY 2027

EOY 2026

65

50

50

45

22

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Jun 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

378

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2026-2027

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

16

15

15

14

14

14

14

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