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Prediction markets for Human Last Exam

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.22%chance

7818700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1697

589

Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?

Feb 3, 1:14 AMJun 16, 3:59 AM

14.01%chance

478713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2477

404

Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?

Nov 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.98%chance

162596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2997

334

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91702

OptionProbability

2027

2029

2028

2030-2034

2026

2025

51

16

14

14

4

1

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

6.73%chance

14888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

415

74

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 60% by what year?

Jun 12, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9777

OptionProbability

EOY 2028

EOY 2029

EOY 2030

EOY 2027

EOY 2026

99

99

99

96

89

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 12:59 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

79.41%chance

7738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

744

84

Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 90% by what year?

Jun 12, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16430

OptionProbability

EOY 2030

EOY 2029

EOY 2028

EOY 2027

EOY 2026

79

78

76

62

16

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.61%chance

13332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

20

Will "About 30% of Humanity’s Last Exam chemistry/b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.69%chance

3320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

958

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.51%chance

4219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

193

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.46%chance

8214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

94

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