Human Rights Day News

Something Happens (YES) VS Nothing Ever Happens (NO) 2024-2025

May 5, 12:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.28%chance

264689

OptionVotes

YES

4710

655

Does AI Pareto-dominate technical but non-mathematician humans at math?

Dec 13, 12:02 AMJan 11, 11:20 PM

22.16%chance

384028

OptionVotes

YES

1912

268

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

7826

OptionVotes

YES

1013

987

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16695

OptionProbability

2044-2045

2029-2030

2028-2029

2030-2031

2027-2028

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

1123

765

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

What will be the most complete individual Denisovan fossil discovered by 2035?

Aug 19, 10:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6148

OptionProbability

≥1 bones (like Denisova 4, Homo denisova, ~60kya)

≥2 bones (like Xiahe mandible, Homo denisova, ~160kya)

≥20 bones (enough for ~complete skull, like La Ferrassie 1, Homo neanderthalensis, ~50kya)

No more fossils found

≥40 bones (like AL 288-1 / Lucy / Dinkʼinesh, Australopithecus afarensis, ~3.2Mya)

≥100 bones (like KNM-WT 15000 / Turkana Boy / Nariokotome Boy, Homo erectus, ~1.5Mya)

≥200 bones (~complete skeleton, like Barum Woman / Bäckaskogskvinna, Homo sapiens, ~9kya)

≥200 bones plus preserved soft tissues (mummified body, like Ötzi / The Iceman, Homo sapiens, ~5.2kya)

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

More 1080p+ Video Feeds Than Humans by 2040?

Nov 20, 8:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

310

Human Rights Day News

Prediction markets for Human Rights Day

Prediction markets for Human Rights Day

Prediction markets for Human Rights Day

Something Happens (YES) VS Nothing Ever Happens (NO) 2024-2025

Does AI Pareto-dominate technical but non-mathematician humans at math?

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

What will be the most complete individual Denisovan fossil discovered by 2035?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

More 1080p+ Video Feeds Than Humans by 2040?

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

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