Human Rights Day News

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.93%chance

291557

OptionVotes

YES

363

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

1669

510

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

311019

OptionVotes

YES

377

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20838

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2044-2045

2030-2031

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

1123

765

What will be the most complete individual Denisovan fossil discovered by 2035?

Aug 19, 10:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6148

OptionProbability

≥1 bones (like Denisova 4, Homo denisova, ~60kya)

≥2 bones (like Xiahe mandible, Homo denisova, ~160kya)

≥20 bones (enough for ~complete skull, like La Ferrassie 1, Homo neanderthalensis, ~50kya)

No more fossils found

≥40 bones (like AL 288-1 / Lucy / Dinkʼinesh, Australopithecus afarensis, ~3.2Mya)

≥100 bones (like KNM-WT 15000 / Turkana Boy / Nariokotome Boy, Homo erectus, ~1.5Mya)

≥200 bones (~complete skeleton, like Barum Woman / Bäckaskogskvinna, Homo sapiens, ~9kya)

≥200 bones plus preserved soft tissues (mummified body, like Ötzi / The Iceman, Homo sapiens, ~5.2kya)

More 1080p+ Video Feeds Than Humans by 2040?

Nov 20, 8:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.01%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

128

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

Human Rights Day News

Prediction markets for Human Rights Day

Prediction markets for Human Rights Day

Prediction markets for Human Rights Day

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

What will be the most complete individual Denisovan fossil discovered by 2035?

More 1080p+ Video Feeds Than Humans by 2040?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

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