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Prediction markets for Humane Pin

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

538

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6310116

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

2031

2035+

2032

2027

2033

2026

2034

2025

20

15

13

12

11

8

7

6

4

3

1

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

Jan 23, 1:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

492802

OptionProbability

Touch-screen smartphones

AR/VR glasses

Other technology that WAS already commercialized in 2024

Other technology that was NOT commercialized in 2024

Rabbit-style voice agents

Humane-style pins

Brain computer interfaces

69

22

3

3

1

1

1

When will mind-reading become reliable in an adversarial context?

Jan 15, 6:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

212682

OptionProbability

Other

2042

2043

2044

2045

2041

2040

2027

2039

2037

2034

2035

2036

2038

2024

2025

2026

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

30

7

7

7

7

6

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

60.76%chance

271984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

804

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

35

25

25

15

When will MKBHD review a product worse than Humane AI pin?

May 1, 8:45 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6160

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

73

68

66

0

0

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