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Prediction markets for HumanEval

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.97%chance

4911431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3948

253

Which Benchmarks will OpenAI show results from GPT-5 on, when it is announced?

Oct 30, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

219105

OptionProbability

SimpleQA

HumanEval

MMLU

GPQA

SWE-Bench

ARC-AGI-2

MATH

Big-Bench-Hard

MGSM

DROP

GSM8K

99

99

99

99

99

99

16

14

12

12

8

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