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Prediction markets for HumanEval

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.08%chance

5012445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2596

385

Will any frontier model score LOWER than its predecessor on a major benchmark at launch?

Mar 21, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.71%chance

53624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

27

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