humanity News

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

May 5, 11:03 AMJan 2, 1:16 AM

4.41%chance

10887181279

OptionVotes

YES

7851

2054

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.81%chance

8054170952

OptionVotes

YES

3519

1820

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.33%chance

34462765805

OptionVotes

YES

9920

9638

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Mar 11, 5:11 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

7.47%chance

4671716138

OptionVotes

YES

5220

1773

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.68%chance

322858510

OptionVotes

YES

6769

3640

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.77%chance

502415333

OptionVotes

YES

3100

2051

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

11.18%chance

203282468

OptionVotes

YES

4438

1297

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.42%chance

456124556

OptionVotes

YES

11080

10654

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?

May 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

1.03%chance

7839803

OptionVotes

YES

14317

938

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.88%chance

6212993

OptionVotes

YES

15233

6565

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

10313

9761

humanity News

Prediction markets for humanity

Prediction markets for humanity

Prediction markets for humanity

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

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