humanity News

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

May 5, 11:03 AMJan 2, 1:16 AM

5.33%chance

11017269389

OptionVotes

YES

6621

2117

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.99%chance

8124171084

OptionVotes

YES

3479

1827

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.55%chance

34572771151

OptionVotes

YES

10161

9355

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Mar 11, 5:11 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

7.73%chance

4741716621

OptionVotes

YES

5067

1786

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.57%chance

324859502

OptionVotes

YES

7349

3560

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

547459947

OptionVotes

YES

2969

2196

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

11.56%chance

207282700

OptionVotes

YES

4324

1312

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.43%chance

465127684

OptionVotes

YES

11519

10225

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?

May 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

1.42%chance

7840845

OptionVotes

YES

10787

981

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.93%chance

7014663

OptionVotes

YES

14553

6871

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

10313

9761

humanity News

Prediction markets for humanity

Prediction markets for humanity

Prediction markets for humanity

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

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