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Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16%chance

364112279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2272

996

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.73%chance

6128700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1451

549

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

51.06%chance

10927408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2056

1924

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

42.2%chance

7321608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7855

4095

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.37%chance

11815348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4955

621

Will Israel be found Guilty of Genocide at the ICJ ?

Jan 12, 5:04 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

18.77%chance

10713148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1446

917

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.46%chance

2112898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13764

3641

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

85.49%chance

606516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1726

1171

Will NASA's Europa Clipper confirm liquid water under the ice?

Oct 18, 1:02 AMOct 15, 3:59 AM

76.55%chance

11959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1807

553

Who will qualify to the 2027 ICPC NAC? (East Central Division only)

Oct 26, 8:00 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

12873

OptionProbability

University of Waterloo

Purdue University

University of Michigan

University of Toronto St. George

Carnegie Mellon University

Michigan State University

University of Toronto Mississauga

University of Toronto Scarborough

Toronto Metropolitan University

Other

Pennsylvania State University

Ohio State University

99

95

93

86

84

80

48

34

6

6

4

4

Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?

Apr 23, 12:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73%chance

12574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

835

Arctic sea ice extent on Nov 20, 2026 (NSIDC daily value)?

Oct 22, 8:56 PMNov 19, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 9.5 million km²

9.5 to under 9.9

9.9 to under 10.3

10.3 million km² or above

25

25

25

25

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