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Prediction markets for ICS

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.69%chance

357106311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

1262

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.65%chance

7321461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7930

4041

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50.13%chance

9720091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2092

1887

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.28%chance

11515042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6343

443

Will Israel be found Guilty of Genocide at the ICJ ?

Jan 12, 5:04 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

20.41%chance

10112495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1339

943

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15423

3517

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

38.69%chance

728679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

88.12%chance

566365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2074

1119

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

543006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

Widespread reports of ICE or DHS agents guarding polling stations during Trump II

Aug 15, 4:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

65.86%chance

5613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

720

Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035?

May 27, 8:36 AMMar 3, 9:59 PM

46.33%chance

10606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

929

Will Duterte be convicted by the ICC before 2030?

Dec 3, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.67%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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