Ignite News

Will Artemis II launch before 2027?

Apr 13, 1:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

93.2%chance

4713817

OptionVotes

YES

3298

616

Will Argentina's poverty level drop below 15% by 2030?

Dec 25, 11:21 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM

37.96%chance

421851

OptionVotes

YES

1325

720

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

91530

OptionVotes

YES

1040

961

Will a nuclear saltwater rocket engine be tested before 2040?

Nov 12, 1:42 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

31.63%chance

14952

OptionVotes

YES

1300

818

What will be the next fusion project to reach Q=1 scientific breakeven?

Feb 27, 6:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14865

OptionProbability

Commonwealth Fusion

Helion

Zap Energy

Other

Ante

Tokamak Energy

TAE

ITER

Renaissance Fusion

Marvel Fusion

Proxima Fusion

Type One Energy

Thea Energy

Stellarex

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

1044

907

Will a nuclear torchship be operated in space before 2100?

Nov 23, 10:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.29%chance

9368

OptionVotes

YES

130

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

What happened in Ship 37's engine bay? [Add answers]

Aug 27, 6:19 AMSep 26, 5:54 AM

8231

OptionProbability

Ice clogged the flap root pipe and trapped residual propellant expanding rapidly from reentry warming caused it to rupture

Ice clogged the flap root pipe and an overpressure event caused it to rupture

Too much oxygen and methane mixing in an enclosed space and igniting. Clogged pipes and or solid lumps of oxygen or methane being involved in causing those excessive quantities

A loose heat shield tile struck the outer flap area

A Starlink simulator struck the outer flap area

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by America?

Oct 10, 4:45 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

18.53%chance

7204

OptionVotes

YES

228

136

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.18%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1147

872

Could the Trinity test ignite the atmosphere if the atmosphere were made of something else?

Aug 6, 5:25 PMAug 7, 6:59 AM

Ignite News

Prediction markets for Ignite

Prediction markets for Ignite

Prediction markets for Ignite

Will Artemis II launch before 2027?

Will Argentina's poverty level drop below 15% by 2030?

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Will a nuclear saltwater rocket engine be tested before 2040?

What will be the next fusion project to reach Q=1 scientific breakeven?

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Will a nuclear torchship be operated in space before 2100?

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

What happened in Ship 37's engine bay? [Add answers]

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by America?

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Could the Trinity test ignite the atmosphere if the atmosphere were made of something else?

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