Ignite News

Will Artemis II launch before 2027?

Apr 13, 1:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

97.13%chance

7831970

OptionVotes

YES

6322

478

Will Argentina's poverty level drop below 15% by 2030?

Dec 25, 11:21 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM

38.02%chance

431852

OptionVotes

YES

1323

721

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

91530

OptionVotes

YES

1040

961

Will a nuclear saltwater rocket engine be tested before 2040?

Nov 12, 1:42 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

31.63%chance

14952

OptionVotes

YES

1300

818

What happened in Ship 37's engine bay? [Add answers]

Aug 27, 6:19 AMSep 26, 5:54 AM

8506

OptionProbability

Ice clogged the flap root pipe and an overpressure event caused it to rupture

Ice clogged the flap root pipe and trapped residual propellant expanding rapidly from reentry warming caused it to rupture

Too much oxygen and methane mixing in an enclosed space and igniting. Clogged pipes and or solid lumps of oxygen or methane being involved in causing those excessive quantities

A loose heat shield tile struck the outer flap area

A Starlink simulator struck the outer flap area

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

1044

907

Will a nuclear torchship be operated in space before 2100?

Nov 23, 10:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.29%chance

9368

OptionVotes

YES

130

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by America?

Oct 10, 4:45 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

18.53%chance

7204

OptionVotes

YES

228

136

What will Project Hail Mary Global Box Office Gross be (in Millions) 🍿🎥🎬🚀🧑‍🚀

Mar 23, 7:38 PMSep 20, 1:59 PM

7198

OptionProbability

Above $350M

Above $450M

Above $550M

Above $750M

Above $650M

Above $850M

Above $950M

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Mar 30, 5:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.18%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1147

872

Could the Trinity test ignite the atmosphere if the atmosphere were made of something else?

Aug 6, 5:25 PMAug 7, 6:59 AM

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Prediction markets for Ignite

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Prediction markets for Ignite

Will Artemis II launch before 2027?

Will Argentina's poverty level drop below 15% by 2030?

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Will a nuclear saltwater rocket engine be tested before 2040?

What happened in Ship 37's engine bay? [Add answers]

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Will a nuclear torchship be operated in space before 2100?

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by America?

What will Project Hail Mary Global Box Office Gross be (in Millions) 🍿🎥🎬🚀🧑‍🚀

Will another accidental liftoff occur before 2035?

Could the Trinity test ignite the atmosphere if the atmosphere were made of something else?

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