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Prediction markets for II

When will Artemis II launch?

Jul 30, 8:06 AMDec 31, 9:00 AM

1023202

Will Artemis II launch before 2026?

Apr 13, 1:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.94%chance

4020422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11540

149

Will I perform at Fyre Festival II?

Jan 12, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.08%chance

348649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10538

1545

Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?

Oct 16, 3:48 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

87.55%chance

107350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2652

377

Will Artemis II launch before 2027?

Apr 13, 1:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.92%chance

335071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

833

Will a World War II veteran live to see AGI?

May 27, 4:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.98%chance

443556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1812

656

Will Queen Elizabeth II be the last Queen of the United Kingdom?

May 28, 12:27 PMNov 11, 12:32 PM

56.98%chance

331679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

875

Will Destiny (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II ) still be alive at the beginning of 2030?

Jan 5, 7:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.73%chance

161609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

892

Will AoE IV have more active users on Steam than AoE II on 12/31/25?

Oct 15, 1:14 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

28.03%chance

141040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1417

773

Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?

Aug 3, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.26%chance

15884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

895

Will there be an expert-player-beating AI (eg in a x-of-5 match beats Viper/Daut/Hera) in Age of Empires II (AoE2) by 2025?

Oct 4, 2:38 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

29.26%chance

16492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

922

Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?

May 27, 4:37 PMJun 29, 6:59 AM

41%chance

12441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

975

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