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Prediction markets for Illustrator

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

19.62%chance

9718085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

586

Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator Sale Price?

Jan 2, 7:01 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

58107

OptionProbability

> $5M

> $4M

> $6M

> $7M

> $8M

> $10M

> $15M

97

94

94

86

71

45

14

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10173

3993

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7894

5344

Will a Pokemon card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2028? (Current: $5.275M for Pikachu Illustrator)

Nov 29, 1:33 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.7%chance

91018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

705

31

Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030?

Apr 23, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.1%chance

14605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1293

889

Robotic car vacuum beast by mid 2035

May 21, 10:00 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

43.43%chance

12477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.15%chance

9461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1430

699

Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034

May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47.95%chance

5350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

960

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

41.7%chance

6320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

When will we have Ai that can draw diagrams to illustrate it's point.

Aug 27, 7:58 PMDec 31, 5:04 PM

50

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