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Prediction markets for Image

Will Anthropic release an image generation model in 2026?

Jan 27, 11:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.59%chance

6410879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will Anthropic's first image generation capability be based on an in-house image model?

Feb 3, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.31%chance

263628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

752

Will AI replace radiologists as the main reporter of clinical images in the USA (without human oversight) before 2050?

Mar 5, 11:37 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

89.81%chance

292580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2104

768

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11500

8696

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

Feb 2, 8:55 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

41280

OptionProbability

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before March 2026

93

92

83

67

51

25

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.77%chance

61105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1953

512

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

57%chance

11831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

872

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026

Jan 2, 8:42 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

37.68%chance

11535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

778

Twitter feature: can adjust image order on the website on PC, by mid 2026

Feb 22, 5:10 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.84%chance

9152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

486

479

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2026?

Sep 25, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.06%chance

8118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

639

571

Benchmark Gap #7: Once 10% of the medical Grand Challenges are "solved", how many months will it be before AI are in common use in hospitals for analyzing medical images with minimal human oversight?

Feb 8, 10:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.62%chance

225

OptionProbability

NO

YES

295

276

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