Imagine Anything News

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Dec 18, 5:45 PMDec 17, 6:59 AM

15872003

OptionProbability

He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

He leaves Argentina during his first term

He travels to Chile during his first term

He travels to Brazil during his first term

He is photographed with Elon Musk

A photo of him with Trump is released

A photo of Milei with Biden is released

His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position

Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?

Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?

Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]

Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]

Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better

His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered

Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]

Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39

Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%

According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]

There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.

He wins reelection to a 2nd term

A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him

Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?

The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]

LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?

The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]

Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place

LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?

He travels to Bolivia

Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term

Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup

Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)

He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal

He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX

Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees

Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]

He goes incommunicado for at least a week

Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)

Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish

He marries during his first term

He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term

US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina

He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week

There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired

He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it

Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup

Will he ever be TIME person of the year?

He officially converts to Judaism

Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term

He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years

He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]

He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]

Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)

Argentina will win the 2026 world cup

He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]

The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office

The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use

He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office

He travels to Russia during his first term

Argentina will declare war

He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election

He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash

Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?

He has a child during his first term

He is excommunicated by the catholic church

He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]

He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash

He passes away during his first term before completion

There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side

Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week

Will Argentina join BRICS?

100

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

6.6%chance

24063485

OptionVotes

YES

3614

536

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.71%chance

311318

OptionVotes

YES

1011

953

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

27.83%chance

25828

OptionVotes

YES

1193

919

By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?

Jan 3, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

10446

OptionVotes

YES

1075

964

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will South Korea become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:18 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

59.75%chance

10260

OptionVotes

YES

159

134

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?

Dec 17, 1:09 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

82.35%chance

7196

OptionVotes

YES

212

Will the claim that people that grew up with GPT-like systems are smarter be plausible by 2050?

Mar 21, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.89%chance

11141

OptionVotes

YES

246

101

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

44.14%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

1125

889

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will the Philippines become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:22 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.53%chance

7116

OptionVotes

YES

153

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

48.5%chance

866

OptionVotes

YES

163

135

Imagine Anything News

Prediction markets for Imagine Anything

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Prediction markets for Imagine Anything

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will South Korea become militarily involved?

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?

Will the claim that people that grew up with GPT-like systems are smarter be plausible by 2050?

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will the Philippines become militarily involved?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

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