Imagine videos News

Elon Musk (props)

Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM

309142

OptionProbability

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

xAI (props)

Mar 7, 11:36 AMMar 7, 11:36 AM

9888

OptionProbability

Grok-5 publicly released by August 1, 2026

Grok-5 utilizes a multi-agent architecture composed of several LLMs like Grok-4.2

Grok Imagine supports 1080p 30s videos by September 30, 2026

xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents emulating a digital company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026

Colossus supercluster hits 1.5GW by May 1, 2026

xAI publicly deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents emulating digital humans) by December 31, 2026

xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard on or before June 1, 2026

By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?

Jan 3, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

10446

OptionVotes

YES

1075

964

What will I game on in 2035?

Dec 4, 9:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4443

OptionProbability

PC / Laptop

Home Console

Handheld Console

Augmented / Virtual Reality

Something totally other

Streaming to any device

Smartphone

Holodeck

Arcade Cabinet

Brain/Computer Interface

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Mar 24, 2:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8363

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media)

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

10281

OptionVotes

YES

304

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

80.5%chance

10228

OptionVotes

YES

203

Will Tumbles become convinced that local realism is false before 2027? (quantum physics)

Jan 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 12:20 PM

77.07%chance

280

OptionVotes

YES

133

Will we have widely used recommender systems that uses brain data by 2030? 🧠

Jul 20, 2:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.43%chance

552

OptionVotes

YES

174

106

What would you do in this situation? (Read Description)

Apr 16, 4:00 PM

100

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Mar 9, 8:51 PM

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Prediction markets for Imagine videos

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Elon Musk (props)

xAI (props)

By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?

What will I game on in 2035?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media)

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Will Tumbles become convinced that local realism is false before 2027? (quantum physics)

Will we have widely used recommender systems that uses brain data by 2030? 🧠

What would you do in this situation? (Read Description)

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

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