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Imagine News

    Prediction markets for Imagine

    Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

    Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    17.82%chance
    99161555

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    111105

    17339

    By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

    May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
    75%chance
    18253982

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2063

    1170

    Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

    Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    39.57%chance
    16940406

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1882

    1004

    Elon Musk (props)

    Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM
    309142

    OptionProbability

    Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

    Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

    Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

    Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

    Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

    xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

    Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

    Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

    Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

    Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

    Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

    Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

    Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

    68

    21

    19

    16

    8

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    How many new Tesla models will go on sale in 2026?

    Jan 3, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    53425

    OptionProbability

    Zero?! Have a little faith!

    One, playing safe

    Two! That would break the internet

    Three? Imagine the tweets!

    Four?! Really? You might as well bet on other

    Other

    80

    7

    6

    3

    3

    2

    Which of these mainstream artists (or bands) will credit an AI in a song release? (Kanye ft. Suno, or Drake ft. ChatGPT)

    Apr 4, 1:27 PMApr 4, 1:30 PM
    392844

    OptionProbability

    Grimes

    Deadmau5

    Kanye West

    Apex Twin

    Imagine Dragons

    Will Smith

    Justin Bieber

    The Weeknd

    Coldplay

    Madonna

    Ed Sheeran

    Selena Gomez

    Snoop Dog

    Rihanna

    Drake

    Lana Del Ray

    Ariana Grande

    Beyoncé

    U2

    Green Day

    Adele

    Kendrick Lamar

    Taylor Swift

    Eminem

    Olivia Rodrigo

    85

    51

    43

    30

    25

    23

    19

    19

    19

    19

    18

    17

    17

    17

    17

    16

    13

    13

    13

    11

    11

    11

    10

    7

    6

    xAI (props)

    Mar 7, 11:36 AMMar 7, 11:36 AM
    9888

    OptionProbability

    Grok-5 publicly released by August 1, 2026

    Grok-5 utilizes a multi-agent architecture composed of several LLMs like Grok-4.2

    Grok Imagine supports 1080p 30s videos by September 30, 2026

    xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents emulating a digital company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026

    Colossus supercluster hits 1.5GW by May 1, 2026

    xAI publicly deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents emulating digital humans) by December 31, 2026

    xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard on or before June 1, 2026

    64

    63

    44

    43

    39

    38

    26

    Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

    Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    32.46%chance
    14587

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1139

    442

    Will "Near-Instantly Aborting the Worst Pain Imagin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

    Feb 8, 6:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
    62.99%chance
    2550

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1389

    133

    Machine using energy measured in imaginary numbers exists by EOY2050?

    Jul 12, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    12.03%chance
    6244

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    270

    37

    How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

    Dec 21, 8:09 PMDec 31, 7:53 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

    Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

    Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

    Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

    Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

    Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

    Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

    Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

    Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"

    Frise (2023) “Epistemological Problems of Memory”

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    Must one imagine Sisyphus happy?

    Nov 18, 4:59 AM
    80

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