Imagine News

xAI Releases Grok Update, Boosts Speed and Animation in Imagine

10 months ago

AI Products

xAI Releases Grok App Version 1.1.62 Adding Text Chat With Companions Ani, Valentine, Rudi and Removes Ani’s Outfit

10 months ago

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

81796

26531

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75%chance

18253982

OptionVotes

YES

2063

1170

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17243865

OptionVotes

YES

1585

1297

Elon Musk (props)

Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM

3512709

OptionProbability

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

How many new Tesla models will go on sale in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65385

OptionProbability

Zero?! Have a little faith!

One, playing safe

Two! That would break the internet

Other

Three? Imagine the tweets!

Four?! Really? You might as well bet on other

xAI (props)

Mar 7, 11:36 AMMar 7, 11:36 AM

10988

OptionProbability

Colossus supercluster hits 1.5GW by May 1, 2026

Grok-5 publicly released by August 1, 2026

Grok-5 utilizes a multi-agent architecture composed of several LLMs like Grok-4.2

xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents emulating a digital company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026

xAI publicly deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents emulating digital humans) by December 31, 2026

Grok Imagine supports 1080p 30s videos by September 30, 2026

xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard on or before June 1, 2026

100

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.7%chance

14622

OptionVotes

YES

1157

406

Will "Near-Instantly Aborting the Worst Pain Imagin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 6:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

62.99%chance

2550

OptionVotes

YES

1389

133

Machine using energy measured in imaginary numbers exists by EOY2050?

Jul 12, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.03%chance

6244

OptionVotes

YES

270

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

Dec 21, 8:09 PMDec 31, 7:53 PM

OptionProbability

Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"

Frise (2023) “Epistemological Problems of Memory”

Must one imagine Sisyphus happy?

Nov 18, 4:59 AM

Imagine you are suddenly transported to 2026 BC, where would you rather live for the rest of your life?

Apr 20, 11:49 PM

180

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Prediction markets for Imagine

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Elon Musk (props)

How many new Tesla models will go on sale in 2026?

xAI (props)

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Will "Near-Instantly Aborting the Worst Pain Imagin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Machine using energy measured in imaginary numbers exists by EOY2050?

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

Must one imagine Sisyphus happy?

Imagine you are suddenly transported to 2026 BC, where would you rather live for the rest of your life?

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