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Prediction markets for Imagine
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.82%chance
99161555
OptionVotes
111105
17339
By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?
May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
75%chance
18253982
OptionVotes
2063
1170
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.57%chance
16940406
OptionVotes
1882
1004
OptionProbability
68
21
19
16
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
80
7
6
3
3
2
Which of these mainstream artists (or bands) will credit an AI in a song release? (Kanye ft. Suno, or Drake ft. ChatGPT)
Apr 4, 1:27 PMApr 4, 1:30 PM
392844
OptionProbability
85
51
43
30
25
23
19
19
19
19
18
17
17
17
17
16
13
13
13
11
11
11
10
7
6
OptionProbability
64
63
44
43
39
38
26
Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?
Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
32.46%chance
14587
OptionVotes
1139
442
Will "Near-Instantly Aborting the Worst Pain Imagin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Feb 8, 6:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
62.99%chance
2550
OptionVotes
1389
133
Machine using energy measured in imaginary numbers exists by EOY2050?
Jul 12, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.03%chance
6244
OptionVotes
270
37
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50



