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Top stories

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

Authors

16

6 months ago

Prediction markets for IMO

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

67.77%chance

15037943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10179

9344

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

43.54%chance

4520709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11745

8426

Will I make IMO ever

Sep 25, 2:44 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

35.7%chance

699170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2582

1545

Will AI get IMO Gold by 2025/Wipe out Humanity by 2030?

Aug 3, 10:10 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

198513

OptionProbability

Gets gold/does not wipe out humanity

Gets gold/wipes out humanity

Does not get gold/does not wipe out humanity

Does not get gold/wipes out humanity

95

3

1

0

Which country will win IMO 2026?

Jul 24, 2:00 AMJul 20, 4:00 PM

438397

OptionProbability

People's Republic of China

United States of America

Russian Federation

Republic of Korea

Other

83

12

3

1

1

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACGN) will be the easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Dec 15, 2:56 AMDec 29, 5:59 AM

203863

OptionProbability

Geometry

Algebra

Combinatorics

Number Theory

99

1

0

0

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.78%chance

161667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

525

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

604

How many perfect scores will there be at IMO 2026?

Jul 28, 7:29 AMJul 20, 11:59 PM

19609

OptionProbability

6+

3

2

4

5

0

1

19

16

15

14

14

11

11

How many Hard Geometry Questions will appear in the 2025-2026 USA IMO Cycle?

Sep 25, 12:10 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

9443

OptionProbability

3-5

0-2

6-7

8-10

11+

62

54

6

4

2

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

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