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Top stories

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

Authors

16

4 months ago

Prediction markets for IMO

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.85%chance

6617807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10162

9359

Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?

Jul 26, 11:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.71%chance

5516460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3125

320

Will I make IMO ever

Sep 25, 2:44 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

50.81%chance

678460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2077

1865

Which country will win IMO 2026?

Jul 24, 2:00 AMJul 20, 4:00 PM

275961

OptionProbability

🇨🇳 People's Republic of China

🇺🇸 United States of America

🇷🇺 Russian Federation

🇰🇷 Republic of Korea

Other

79

12

6

2

1

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

54.94%chance

184642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

906

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACGN) will be the easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Dec 15, 2:56 AMDec 29, 5:59 AM

203810

OptionProbability

Geometry

Algebra

Combinatorics

Number Theory

99

1

0

0

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

604

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.12%chance

161485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

527

How many years between an AI scoring bronze on an IMO and an AI solving half of a Miklós Schweitzer exam?

Dec 31, 8:06 AMDec 18, 7:56 AM

15%chance

11605

OptionProbability

YES

NO

778

344

5+ perfect scorers at IMO 2026?

Aug 31, 3:05 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

46.71%chance

13188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

94

UK TOP 10 in IMO 2026?

Sep 8, 10:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.68%chance

846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

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