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Top stories

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

Authors

16

1 year ago

Prediction markets for IMO

Will AI get IMO Gold by 2025/Wipe out Humanity by 2030?

Aug 3, 10:10 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

198618

OptionProbability

Gets gold/does not wipe out humanity

Gets gold/wipes out humanity

Does not get gold/wipes out humanity

Does not get gold/does not wipe out humanity

95

4

1

1

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

78.88%chance

224706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1745

670

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Jun 26, 6:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

94215

OptionProbability

>= 25 years

< 25 years

< 4 years

< 10 years

< 1 year

< 2 years

< 1 month

< 4 months

< 1 week

42

14

12

10

8

8

3

2

1

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACGN) will be the easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Dec 15, 2:56 AMDec 29, 5:59 AM

203945

OptionProbability

Geometry

Algebra

Combinatorics

Number Theory

99

1

0

0

What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

102043

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2027

2024

2025

2026

13

12

10

0

0

0

Will I make IMO in 2028

May 1, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.41%chance

261857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

692

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.53%chance

231853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1808

569

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

54.82%chance

191736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

458

Will I qualify for the IMO before getting a girlfriend?

Mar 8, 7:49 PMMay 6, 6:44 PM

66.51%chance

311397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

985

A problem proposed by AI appears on IMO 2027?

Jul 29, 8:05 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

6.05%chance

6328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

394

25

How many top 10 Indonesia's IMO 2026 TST will qualify to IMO 2027?

Aug 2, 1:26 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

4309

OptionProbability

3

4

5

2

6

1

0

44

37

10

6

1

1

1

Will a "Raymond Christopher" represent Indonesia to the IMO before 2043?

May 12, 10:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.87%chance

2168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

100

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