Improbable News

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

Massive fraud

Multiple counts of perjury

Advanced human technology

Transformer-based architecture

Over 1T parameters

Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)

Developed by OpenAI

Developed by Google Deepmind

Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)

Developed by a non-British and non-American company

Based on Symbolic AI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence)

Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)

Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)

Over 1T parameters

Transformer-based architecture

Developed by OpenAI

Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)

Developed by Google Deepmind

Narrow domain of knowledge. ie Does not know random facts such as when Google was founded, or who won the 1960 presidential election.

Developed by Anthropic

Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)

Developed by a non-British and non-American company

Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)

Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)

YES

NO

Robot-Proof: When Machines Have All the Answers, Build Better People by Vivienne Ming

Other

The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth by Nicolas Niarchos

Bonfire of the Murdochs: How the Epic Fight to Control the Last Great Media Dynasty Broke a Family — and the World by Gabriel Sherman

Plastic Inc.: Big Oil, Big Money and the Plan to Trash Our Future by Beth Gardiner

Adrift in the South by Xiao Hai

Incorruptible: Why Good Companies Go Bad . . . and How Great Companies Stay Great by Eric Ries

The Curious Case of Mike Lynch: The Improbable Life & Death of a Tech Billionaire | Katie Prescot

Control Science: How Management Made the Modern World by Henry Sno

Inside the Box | David Epstein

The Age of Extraction | Tim Wu

House of Fidelity: The Rise of the Johnson Dynasty and the Company That Changed American Investing | Justin Baer

I Am Not a Robot: My Year Using AI to Do (Almost) Everything | Joanna Stern

Steve Jobs in Exile | Geoffrey Cain

YES