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Prediction markets for Improvement Proposals

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

17.43%chance

307834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2079

497

Will Manifold Introduce an Incentive for Trading on Markets with Few Traders? (Proposal in Description)?

Mar 5, 4:49 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

8.02%chance

122127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2270

53

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.47%chance

21563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

721

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.91%chance

12550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3605

3380

Which guest contributor would most increase Ten Today’s engagement?

Jun 26, 7:29 PMJun 26, 7:09 PM

3455

OptionProbability

Aella

Joe Alny

Other

Alex

76

14

6

5

Will a plan to connect Leeds to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?

May 1, 7:50 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.51%chance

4151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

65

BART/Caltrain merger by 2028?

Dec 23, 2:27 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.68%chance

5125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

Will 10% of US electric vehicles have Vehicle-to-Grid connectivity on 2032-02-27?

Feb 27, 10:59 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

42.3%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

105

Will a plan to connect Liverpool to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?

May 1, 7:43 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

38.65%chance

213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

83

60

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