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Prediction markets for Improvement Proposals

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

13.36%chance

317924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2456

429

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.34%chance

22663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

821

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.28%chance

12595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3648

3335

BART/Caltrain merger by 2028?

Dec 23, 2:27 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11%chance

6388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will the Rockstar games workers gain union recognition before the release of GTAVI?

Dec 15, 11:25 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

37.28%chance

4331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

771

Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.2%chance

10272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

168

Elon Musk publicly speaks about the need to free North Korea from the Kim dictatorship any time through 2028

Sep 15, 11:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

19.23%chance

8188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

95

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Mandatory DNA synthesis screening law in the US by '27?

Apr 14, 6:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.79%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

97

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