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Prediction markets for Improvement Proposals

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

13.46%chance

317922

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2445

431

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.34%chance

22663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

821

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.28%chance

12595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3648

3335

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.2%chance

10272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

168

Elon Musk publicly speaks about the need to free North Korea from the Kim dictatorship any time through 2028

Sep 15, 11:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

19.23%chance

8188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

95

Will a plan to connect Leeds to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?

May 1, 7:50 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.51%chance

4151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

65

Will 10% of US electric vehicles have Vehicle-to-Grid connectivity on 2032-02-27?

Feb 27, 10:59 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

42.3%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

105

Will a Type 32 frigate be commissioned by the Royal Navy before 2040?

May 10, 9:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

60.59%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

62

40

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