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Prediction markets for in

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.23%chance

452112383476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27374

17279

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.93%chance

27022466295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14996

1282

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

18752190330

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Other

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Mark Kelly

Hunter Biden

Michelle Obama

Raphael Warnock

Cory Booker

Wes Moore

Ro Khanna

Ruben Gallego

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Jared Polis

Amy Klobuchar

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Mark Cuban

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Jon Stewart

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

20

17

16

13

5

5

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

2.71%chance

5281677182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

600102

16686

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.37%chance

5551020252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33103

3025

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.46%chance

630671922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5352

4554

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

40.66%chance

348292667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6468

3775

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.18%chance

369286789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2761

998

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

210151951

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48109764

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

39

29

23

9

Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?

Jul 28, 1:15 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

53104732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10452

9250

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

64.51%chance

8579053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

68315

36630

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