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Prediction markets for in

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.59%chance

448712290388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25585

18060

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.12%chance

26892447030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13978

1420

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

18482135015

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jon Ossoff

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Mark Kelly

Jon Stewart

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Michelle Obama

Raphael Warnock

Wes Moore

Ro Khanna

Hunter Biden

Ruben Gallego

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Jared Polis

Amy Klobuchar

Cory Booker

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Mark Cuban

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

25

13

11

11

8

5

5

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

3.49%chance

4781501908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

526051

19035

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.79%chance

540866747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30377

3296

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

619656532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5617

4107

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

46%chance

346291594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5852

4245

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.87%chance

354261898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2038

1317

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

194149424

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47106751

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

39

29

23

9

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

52.56%chance

7761833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

53508

47064

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.56%chance

15528098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

693

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