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Inception News

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14334752

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2026

2031

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2027

2032

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

34

11

6

6

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

🧑🏾 ⚒️ Will Will Smith smith?

Jan 19, 7:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.07%chance

7129229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1384

785

Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?

Dec 11, 6:14 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

32.87%chance

13128734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10560

8654

Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?

Dec 14, 5:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.73%chance

181581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

464

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.19%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

Will there be a movie/TV show made that focuses on the trajectory of OpenAI from its inception? (By 2026)

Nov 20, 3:36 PMJan 1, 10:03 AM

39.2%chance

12762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1457

350

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films that haven't been on it before will make it? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 4, 4:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10620

OptionProbability

Oppenheimer

Inception

Wolf of Wall Street

Whiplash

Spirited Away

Interstellar

Mad Max Fury Road

Arrival

Poor Things

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Dark Knight

Killers of the Flower Moon

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

The Martian

Drive

Baby Driver

Paul Blart Mall Cop

Napoleon

Paul Blart Mall Cop 2

74

73

66

66

66

64

59

59

50

50

50

41

41

41

34

27

15

14

11

When will the LAX People Mover Open

Mar 27, 3:20 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

5441

When will Tesla bots be commercially available (2)?

Jul 28, 11:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

6169

OptionProbability

Later than 2031

Earlier than 2028

2028

2029

2030

2031

35

21

15

10

10

10

UK increases LISA limit to £550k in London by EOY2027?

Jun 29, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.91%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

107

Will incepto house (https://bento.me/incepto) still exist by EOY2030?

Dec 28, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will "optical pooling" David Feldman @ Inceptive coauthor an academic paper in 2024/2025?

Jul 22, 9:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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