OptionProbability
Resided in the same state as the incident
The shooter killed Charlie Kirk
The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders
Did it on purpose
The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya
The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien
US citizen
Male
Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?
Born in the United States
Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law
Native English speaker (L1)
Is a registered voter
used a bolt action rifle
has at least one sibling
at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account
“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)
n/a
White
Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”
Is named Tyler Robinson
wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing
Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member
had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk
disliked Charlie Kirk
20-27 years old
JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy
Skinny
Turns themselves in to the police / FBI
Lives (or has lived) in Utah
ectomorph body type
He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.
Owns steam profile 76561198159427286
at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Hunter
Acted alone (no accomplices)
Accident please N/A
has purchased furry-related media or items
Gamer
iphone user
Motivated primarily by political ideology
Will plead guilty
has expressed positive sentiment towards furries
Furry
Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology
Unemployed
Is left wing
is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman
has a furaffinity account
Owns a car
Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area
legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk
actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.
Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs
Is sentenced to death
Had bullets with engraved messages on them
Communicated with peers primarily through Discord
Not a virgin
Owns physical furry paraphernalia
extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices
Strongly opposes zionism
There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account
N/A (oops)
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry
Conspired with an AI chatbot about this
Dies in prison
Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa
has used the word yiff in written communication
Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender
Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam
Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)
Has ADHD
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump
had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university
6 ft tall
Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy
Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt
was prescribed psychiatric medication
has vore kink
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione
Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)
Owned the firearm used
Went to furry events
cross-dresser
Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire
Will kill again (including suicide)
Accelerationist (any subtype)
Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy
Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)
Fan fiction author
White cis-hetero Christian man
Wrote a manifesto before the shooting
student at any university
Owns a fursuit
Transgender
Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma
Brony or a fan of My Little Pony
Radical Centrist/JREG fan
at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Participates in this market
Has a Bluesky account
There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account
Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting
Current or previous student at University of Utah
psychedelics user
Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member
Former or current Charlie Kirk fan
Contact with CVLT/764/similar
made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)
Was on an FBI watchlist
Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side
has significant student load debt
Had diagnosed mental illness
Is right wing
Will be convicted by EOY 2026
J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy
Femboy
Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)
History of illegal drug addiction
White Nationalist
Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time
Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)
History of domestic violence
Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way
Left-handed
Had felony conviction previously
groyper
Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?
is Mossad
Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)
Incel
A time traveller trying to avoid the worst
Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)
Escapes carceral detention
Was a student at UVU
Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists
Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets
Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025
Enjoys diplomatic immunity
The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book
Current or former Roman Catholic
Involved in Effective Altruism
Female Ninja Type Sniper
Has a parent who drives for Uber
decel
Fled the country after the shooting
Will get killed by law enforcement
Was a fan of Charlie Kirk
Indian national
The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology
Used a handgun
Ex-military
Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14
Has a PhD
Has a Manifold account
Muslim
Veteran
History of alcoholism
Will share their first name with a famous video game character
Teenager
Will be apprehended at a McDonald's
50 years or older
Has a master's degree
Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.
Is or was a computer science student
Ex law enforcement
Married
Parent
Manifold assists with his capture
Not arrested before EOY 2025
Personally knew Charlie Kirk
The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI
Iranian national
Registered Democrat
Will be convicted by EOY 2025
is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat
All questions in this market are resolved before 2026
Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head
used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory
The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
98
98
98
98
97
97
97
96
96
95
94
93
93
93
92
89
88
86
86
86
85
81
79
78
77
74
74
74
71
71
70
69
67
66
65
65
64
62
60
59
58
56
54
50
50
49
49
47
47
46
46
44
42
41
40
39
38
37
37
35
35
34
33
32
32
32
32
30
29
28
27
26
26
26
23
23
23
21
21
21
21
18
17
16
16
15
15
15
14
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
Snape is black
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Premieres in 2026
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Peeves is a reoccurring character
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
It's woke
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
mandrake root on screen
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Dobby makes an appearance
At least one of the actors is transgender
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
It ends on a cliff hanger
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
Hermione is white
Hermione is Indian
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Premieres in 2027
actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Hermione is black
Zendaya is cast in the show
Voldemort is a woman
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Keir Starmer is in it
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
We get AGI before it premieres
Hagrid is black
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
Gandalf is black
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
99
98
98
97
96
95
95
94
94
94
94
94
93
91
90
90
87
87
86
84
83
81
80
78
70
70
68
66
65
64
63
63
59
57
57
51
42
42
42
34
32
32
31
30
30
29
27
27
27
27
26
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
18
15
14
14
14
13
12
10
10
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
China sanctioned by US + Europe
Taiwan blockaded before invasion
Japan allows use of airbases
CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan
CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]
Japan attacked by Chinese
China attacks Japan
Malacca Strait blockaded
Guam attacked by Chinese
Oil shortages in China
US destroys TSMC factories
US military intervention
Japanese military intervention
Taiwan surrenders
Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month
Philippines allows use of airbases
Philippines attacked by Chinese
US combat troops in Taiwan
US aircraft carrier sunk
Chinese mainland bombed
Chinese warships sunk by US airforce
Food shortages in China
South Korea allows use of airbases
South Korean military intervention
Chinese warships sunk by US submarine
European military intervention
Indian military intervention
China attacks South Korea
Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months
Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Tactical nuclear weapon used
Nuclear weapon used against civilians
78
75
69
67
67
61
60
55
54
54
52
51
50
50
49
47
42
42
41
40
40
40
40
39
39
38
37
35
33
31
31
12
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
46207
2428
OptionProbability
Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)
Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)
Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)
Javier Milei (Argentine President)
Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)
Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)
Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)
Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)
Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)
Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)
Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)
Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)
Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)
Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)
Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)
Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)
Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)
Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)
Vladimir Putin (Russian President)
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)
United Kingdom
Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)
Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)
Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)
Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)
Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)
Emmanuel Macron (French President)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
75
26
20
15
15
10
8
8
7
5
5
OptionProbability
is female
has it p1
gets in any kind of trouble
is male
is indian
is chinese
got their answers from a higher grade level
has it p2
gets caught
confesses
gets suspended
not chinese or indian
gets expelled
is discovered by the end of next week (5/1)
is discorevered by the end of the school year (6/5)
57
54
52
46
44
42
39
37
28
20
18
13
7
0
0
OptionProbability
[The presidential Democratic nominee and/or VP]
Other
[The presidential Republican nominee and/or VP]
Xi Jinping
[The Pope]
[Indian PM]
Mohammed bin Salman
Vladimir Putin
[Israeli PM]
[Ukrainian President]
Claudia Sheinbaum
[President of the European Commission]
Taylor Swift
MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson)
Elon Musk
42
32
21
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Will be Indian
Will do an English interview after winning on that same day
Will have won by his opponent resigning or quitting or other irregular outing at least one game
Every challenger he faces will not be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it
In his first challenge, he will either beat an Indian challenger or lose to a non-Indian challenger. Indian meaning "ethnically Indian".
Will only be champion for ~1 year
He will marry while world champion
Will resign/quit or otherwise not defend his title during an official challenge match
He will stay champion until he marries. (marry then lose at next defense, YES), (marry + defend once, NO), (lose before marrying, NO),
Will defend his title at least three times
He will change citizenship or country he represents while world champion
He will become a father while world champion
Will lose the championship title to someone who has been world champion before
Will defend his title at least ten times
Every challenger he faces will be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it
Will be Chinese
Will have entered candidates tournament at least two times
Will have been born in a current day EU country
Will be married
Will have a child
100
100
100
77
66
33
28
24
24
14
9
8
4
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Chinese
American
Japanese
Canadian
German
Indian
French
Italian
British
Israeli
Russian
57
54
36
32
29
21
14
13
12
11
7
OptionProbability
Tortaria
Hunan Bistro
Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)
Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)
Hill Country
Carlotto
Dominic Ansel Workshop
BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)
Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)
Thai Villa
Bhatti Indian Grill
Brindle Room
Osteria Morini
Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria
Tao Downtown
Strip House (44th + 5th)
Keste Pizza
Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)
Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)
Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)
Prince Street Pizza
Dominic Ansel Kitchen
Au Za'atar
Rezdora
Da Umberto
Casa Mono
Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)
The Donut Pub (both locations must close)
Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)
Scarpetta
Via Carota
Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)
The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)
Japonica
Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)
Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)
Naya (four closest locations must close)
Katz's Delicatessen
Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)
98
98
73
52
48
46
31
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
24
24
21
21
21
21
20
19
18
18
16
12
OptionProbability
Other
Ruy López Opening
Nimzo-Indian Defense
Grünfeld Defense
Najdorf
Berlin Defense
33
25
20
9
7
6
OptionProbability
>20
5-10%
11-15%
15-20%
<5%
27
20
20
20
14
