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OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War Ends in June
War ends in 2025
500+ Iranian civilians killed
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
A second cease-fire is announced
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Israel government dissolves
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Iran launches a cruise missile
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
War ends in July
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Iranian government dissolves
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
Qatar attacks Iran
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
Iran regime change
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
Total casualties exceed 10,000
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
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OptionProbability
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Bake it with your best friend.
Bake for 5 more minutes
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Improve the bread
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Bake for 15 more minutes
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Autolyse 20 minutes
Make the bread taste good
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Watch the video
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Make banana bread
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Add garlic
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Increase water by 50 g
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Brush on an egg wash
Make the bread great again
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
it needs more salt
Bake one more minute
Strawberry jelly filling
Add caffeine to the bread
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Bake vegimite into it.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Use lemonade instead of water.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Half yeast
Replace salt with sugar
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Quadruple salt
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Bake vodka into it
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Add a pinch of sugar
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
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1
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
44742
35956
OptionProbability
RV events
Police as crime solvers
Prison as corrective
Libertarian free will
Working gives us meaning.
LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom
IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence
Merit/desert
Neoliberalism
Proof School
Having kids
LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness
The meaning of life
Rule a Country (discord server)
Religion
The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)
Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research
Quantum computing
Death
Alcohol is needed for life to be fun
meta-irony
Cryptocurrency
Pessimism about the future of the world
Founders/Entrepreneurs
On Manifold, mana inflation
Free will in general
Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals
An apple a day
Clinical Psychology
Nihilism
meta-submissions
Children as planetary burden
focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues
Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future
Anti-capitalism
Ockham’s razor
Free Trade
Deontological ethics
Analytic philosophy
Continental philosophy
Utilitarianism
Modernity
Capitalism
Freedom
The analytic-synthetic distinction
Veganism
Technological progress as a good thing
Moral relativism
Classical literature
Therapy
Being in shape
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Artificial Intelligence
Longevity/immortality
AI Doomerism
Politics
Free Speech
The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated
The anti- AI art movement
Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)
Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world
Enlightenment
Taking things seriously
Unconditional love
Reason
Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)
Psychedelics
Atheism
Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good
Privacy
Living
Prediction markets
democracy
Biodiversity
Virtue
Money as corrupting force in politics
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15
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1958
511
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1012
970
OptionVotes
YES
NO
470
105
OptionProbability
Add tooltips that explain how everything works
Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions
If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.
Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.
Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories
Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets
Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.
Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently
Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)
Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.
Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search
Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.
A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user
Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people
Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up
Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.
Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.
Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"
Open markets in new tab by default
Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely
Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms
Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing
Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market
Dark Mode
Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.
Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column
Let people see the position of a selected user in each market
Add reminders to check back on a market after some time
Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.
Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.
Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market
Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded
Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?
Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date
Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster
Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields
Allow people to place long-term limit orders
Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description
Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary
Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)
Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple
Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market
Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)
Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)
Make a row flash when its probability changes
Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard
Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed
Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data
Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself
Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized
Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.
Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.
Include all unlisted markets
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41
OptionVotes
NO
YES
120
120
OptionProbability
201%-250%
101%-150%
151%-200%
51%-100%
251%+
0%-50%
23
19
19
16
15
8
OptionVotes
NO
YES
128
78
OptionVotes
NO
YES
120
33