OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
DHMO in the water supply
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Gamergate was right
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
John McAfee didn't kill himself
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Dead Internet theory
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
The CIA killed JFK
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
The NFL is rigged
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Harold Holt murdered
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
A cure for cancer has already been found
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Bush did 9/11
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
QR codes are satanic
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Q is Putin
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Do a second rise
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Add garlic
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
put ketchup and cheese on it
Use Iodized salt
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
Add slurs to it
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Make banana bread
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Make the bread taste good
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Bake for 15 more minutes
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Taste the bread
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Brush on an egg wash
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Strawberry jelly filling
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Add caffeine to the bread
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use lemonade instead of water.
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
49884
48622
OptionProbability
RV events
Police as crime solvers
Prison as corrective
Libertarian free will
Working gives us meaning.
LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom
IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence
Merit/desert
Neoliberalism
Proof School
Having kids
LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness
Rule a Country (discord server)
Religion
The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)
Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research
Quantum computing
Alcohol is needed for life to be fun
The meaning of life
Death
Cryptocurrency
Pessimism about the future of the world
Founders/Entrepreneurs
meta-irony
On Manifold, mana inflation
Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals
Free will in general
An apple a day
Clinical Psychology
Nihilism
meta-submissions
Children as planetary burden
focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues
Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future
Anti-capitalism
Ockham’s razor
Free Trade
Deontological ethics
Analytic philosophy
Continental philosophy
Utilitarianism
Modernity
Capitalism
Freedom
The analytic-synthetic distinction
Veganism
Technological progress as a good thing
Moral relativism
Classical literature
Therapy
Being in shape
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Artificial Intelligence
Longevity/immortality
AI Doomerism
Politics
Free Speech
The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated
The anti- AI art movement
Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)
Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world
Enlightenment
Taking things seriously
Unconditional love
Reason
Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)
Psychedelics
Atheism
Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good
Privacy
Living
Prediction markets
democracy
Biodiversity
Virtue
Money as corrupting force in politics
91
88
87
87
85
84
82
81
80
79
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76
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75
75
74
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73
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72
71
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70
65
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61
59
56
55
52
51
50
50
49
49
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40
37
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32
30
30
28
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27
27
26
25
23
23
22
22
21
20
15
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1637
611
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1012
970
OptionVotes
NO
YES
312
32
OptionProbability
Add tooltips that explain how everything works
Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions
If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.
Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.
Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories
Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets
Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.
Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently
Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)
Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.
Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search
Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.
A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user
Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people
Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up
Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.
Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.
Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"
Open markets in new tab by default
Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely
Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms
Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing
Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market
Dark Mode
Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.
Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column
Let people see the position of a selected user in each market
Add reminders to check back on a market after some time
Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.
Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.
Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market
Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded
Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?
Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date
Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster
Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields
Allow people to place long-term limit orders
Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description
Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary
Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)
Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple
Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market
Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)
Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)
Make a row flash when its probability changes
Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard
Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed
Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data
Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself
Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")
Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized
Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.
Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.
Include all unlisted markets
72
63
55
55
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
41
41
41
OptionProbability
Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe
Other
Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion
Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)
33
33
25
8
OptionVotes
NO
YES
120
120
OptionProbability
201%-250%
101%-150%
151%-200%
51%-100%
251%+
0%-50%
23
19
19
16
15
8
OptionVotes
NO
YES
120
33
