Indic News

The Jews control at least one nation's government

Imane Khelif is intersex

The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger

Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.

Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)

The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015

DHMO in the water supply

Dream faked the Manhunt videos

Osama bin Laden didn't act alone

Santa is rigged

That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)

√-1 isn't real

Smartphones listen in on private conversations

The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war

Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team

US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices

Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.

ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.

The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.

Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation

Groundhog Day is rigged

That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam

Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers

Annie Altman's abuse claims

Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.

Gamergate was right

Dead Internet theory

Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others

The NBA rigs the draft lottery

The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West

Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)

Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.

Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

@strutheo is @notrickspringfield

There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips

John McAfee didn't kill himself

At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents

The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only

Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does

Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations

This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba

Eliezer wrote The Erogamer

The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)

Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage

China made covid 19 in a lab

Eating your veggies is bad for your health

Rory Stewart worked for MI6

At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population

Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022

Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US

FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war

The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.

The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin

As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator

Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays

My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.

The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship

Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)

The Clintons assasinated their rivals

China was not genociding Uyghurs

Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.

Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency

lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀

The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.

Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.

Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time

Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen

ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.

Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT

A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products

The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth

Sue Gray was a spy

Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy

We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.

Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.

covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese

The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars

The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.

Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)

The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop

The CIA killed JFK

Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent

The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up

Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real

"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024

The NFL is rigged

The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior

Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator

US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily

Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election

Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")

Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle

A cure for cancer has already been found

Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot

South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023

Harold Holt murdered

Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA

COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health

Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)

The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws

Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem

Ogopogo is real

QAnon

Exercise is bad for your health

A support network of close friendships is bad for your health

Israel killed JFK

Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.

Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so

Allen Iverson invented A.I.

The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around

Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency

Bush did 9/11

Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)

carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming

Princess Diana was assassinated

QR codes are satanic

Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice

Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese

Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme

China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)

Human didnt evolve from apes

Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health

Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension

Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina

Jerry Sandusky is innocent.

Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight

Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics

Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization

South Sudan has had nukes since 2023

Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic

xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition

@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie

Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Rationalussy isn't real.

Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.

Tupac is still alive in 2024

Bielefeld does not exist

The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen

Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first

The Mandella Effect in general is real

The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab

The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.

US government is harboring aliens

Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent

Birds aren't real

climate change isn't human caused

Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations

Jeffrey Epstein is still alive

Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil

The Hellenistic civilization invented USB

The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier

Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP

Climate change isn’t real

The moon landing was fake

The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024

You personally live in Truman Show style captivity

The Romance languages are not descended from Latin

The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization

The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.

The illuminati runs the world

*All* health care is net negative for health

Michelle Obama is a man

Brazilian money is not real

Yeti is real or similar creature

Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina

The earth is a dodecahedron

Skibidi Toilet is real

Q is Putin

It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears

Africa isn't real

Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team

There is no female orgasm

The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.

The earth is flat

*All* vaccines are net negative for health

End of the world in 2012

Earth is hollow

Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.

Finland isn't real

Australia isn't real.

5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on

Nuclear weapons have never existed

Flossing is bad for your health

Brushing your teeth is bad for your health

HIV doesn’t cause AIDS

Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person

The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Do a second rise

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Make banana bread

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

Add garlic

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

put ketchup and cheese on it

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Add slurs to it

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Brush on an egg wash

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Make the bread taste good

Bake for 15 more minutes

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

Taste the bread

Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Make the bread great again

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Increase water by 50 g

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Strawberry jelly filling

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Improve the bread

Quadruple salt

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Add caffeine to the bread

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

it needs more salt

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Use lemonade instead of water.

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Autolyse 20 minutes

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add banana

YES

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

Taylor Swift has been married

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

True Detective Season 5 released

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

Putin still leader of Russia

Xi still leader of China

No humans on the moon since Apollo

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

1200 or more official pokemon

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

I'll be dead.

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

China has landed a human on the moon

Taylor Swift has been divorced

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

RV events

Police as crime solvers

Prison as corrective

Libertarian free will

Working gives us meaning.

LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom

IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence

Merit/desert

Neoliberalism

Proof School

Having kids

LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness

Rule a Country (discord server)

The meaning of life

Religion

The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)

Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research

Quantum computing

Alcohol is needed for life to be fun

Death

Cryptocurrency

Pessimism about the future of the world

Founders/Entrepreneurs

meta-irony

On Manifold, mana inflation

Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals

Free will in general

An apple a day

Clinical Psychology

Nihilism

meta-submissions

Children as planetary burden

focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues

Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future

Anti-capitalism

Ockham’s razor

Free Trade

Deontological ethics

Analytic philosophy

Continental philosophy

Utilitarianism

Modernity

Capitalism

Freedom

The analytic-synthetic distinction

Veganism

Technological progress as a good thing

Moral relativism

Classical literature

Therapy

Being in shape

Rationality

Effective Altruism

Artificial Intelligence

Longevity/immortality

AI Doomerism

Politics

Free Speech

The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated

The anti- AI art movement

Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)

Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world

Enlightenment

Taking things seriously

Unconditional love

Reason

Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)

Psychedelics

Atheism

Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good

Privacy

Living

Prediction markets

democracy

Biodiversity

Virtue

NO

NO

NO

Add tooltips that explain how everything works

Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

Open markets in new tab by default

Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

Dark Mode

Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

Allow people to place long-term limit orders

Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

Make a row flash when its probability changes

Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")

Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

NO

201%-250%

101%-150%

151%-200%

51%-100%

251%+

NO