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Indigenous News

    Prediction markets for Indigenous

    Iran vs US (props)

    Mar 7, 10:55 AMMar 7, 10:55 AM
    530135371

    OptionProbability

    US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026

    US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

    Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

    Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

    Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

    At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

    US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

    Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

    US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

    At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

    Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).

    Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

    Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

    Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

    FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

    Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

    Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

    US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

    Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

    Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

    A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

    US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

    Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

    More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

    US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

    Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

    Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

    Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

    Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

    Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

    US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

    US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

    US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

    US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

    The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

    The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

    Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

    US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    77

    17

    16

    14

    14

    14

    14

    12

    10

    9

    9

    8

    8

    6

    6

    3

    3

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Is Mars devoid of life?

    Nov 16, 7:01 PMNov 18, 11:59 PM
    76%chance
    517848

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    935

    886

    OptionProbability

    Expansion of self-declared environmental licensing (e.g., PL 2159/21)

    Regulation of the Tax Reform approved in 2023 (rules for the new IVA)

    Amnesty for electoral fines for non-compliance with racial and gender quotas (e.g., PEC 9/23)

    Increase in the duration of paternity leave for all cases that currently have this right (e.g., PL 6216/23)

    Legalization of gambling (e.g., PL 2234/22)

    Time limit for the demarcation of Indigenous Lands (e.g., PEC 48/23 - "Marco Temporal das Terras Indígenas")

    Constitutional prohibition of carrying any quantity of illicit drugs (e.g., PEC 45/23)

    Change of attribution for the demarcation of Indigenous Lands to Congress (e.g., PEC 59/23)

    Prohibition of the reinstatement of Armed Forces members who leave the position to run in elections (e.g., PEC 42/23)

    Some reform of military pensions

    New law to regulate health plans (e.g., PL 7419/06)

    Change in percentages or rules for calculating the constitutional floor for health and/or education expenses

    Mineral exploration in Conservation Units (e.g., PL 5822/19)

    Return of the five-year bonus payment for the Public Ministry and public defenders (e.g., PEC 10/23)

    Attribution for states to legislate on the carrying and possession of firearms (e.g., PLP 108/23)

    Reduction of the legal reserve proportion in the Amazon (e.g., PL 3334/23)

    Prohibition of plea bargains during preventive detention (e.g., PL 4372/16)

    Criminalization of a legal hypothesis for abortion that is currently considered legal (e.g., PL 1904/24 - "PL do Estuprador")

    Some increase in the responsibilities of digital platforms for false content ("PL das Fake News")

    Obligation for digital platforms to pay for the distribution of journalistic content

    End of re-election for executive authorities (e.g., PEC 15/07)

    Creation of fixed-term mandates for Supreme Court justices (e.g., PEC 16/19)

    End of the Union's exclusive ownership of marine land (e.g., PEC 3/22 - "PEC das Praias")

    Amnesty for those prosecuted for participating in the events of January 8, 2023 (e.g., PL 5064/23)

    End of salary bonus ("Fim do abono salarial")

    Impeachment of Lula

    Impeachment of a Supreme Court Ministry

    100

    100

    100

    96

    60

    59

    58

    38

    34

    31

    30

    28

    26

    25

    25

    21

    19

    17

    17

    17

    16

    16

    14

    14

    10

    6

    4

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1271

    903

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1122

    922

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1661

    602

    China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

    Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM
    52.33%chance
    6247

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1115

    1009

    OptionProbability

    2040

    2050

    2036

    2033

    2032

    2031

    2030

    2029

    2028

    2027

    81

    81

    74

    71

    69

    66

    52

    38

    29

    9

    Will China provide H-6 bombers to Russia before 2030?

    Jun 2, 11:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    19.22%chance
    5105

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    205

    49

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