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Prediction markets for Industrial Policy

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

80.14%chance

6116884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2008

498

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will the U.S. slide into the tenets of fascism under Trump’s second term by the end of 2025?

Mar 14, 8:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

482805

OptionProbability

Authoritarian Leadership

Forcible Suppression of Opposition

Extreme Nationalism and/or Race-Based Policies

Militarism and Political Violence

Regimentation of Society and Economy

Rejection of Pluralism and Democracy

89

83

81

80

58

23

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

During the year 2027, will China implement a pandemic lockdown in a Tier 1 city comparable to 2022's lockdown?

Jul 7, 3:22 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

8.26%chance

11334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

925

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

79.01%chance

8169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

US tech employment drops 10% from 2025 value in which year?

May 19, 3:47 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2105

Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.68%chance

877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

137

Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.79%chance

342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

68

Greenpeace to campaign against Kok river pollution by end of 2025

Jul 14, 2:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.52%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

Graphite spherical 99.95% above 1735 at EOY2025

Jun 30, 5:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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