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Prediction markets for Inflection

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

688

Will Inflection AI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jun 30, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.98%chance

284400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3895

413

Will Inflection.ai cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:23 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

2.26%chance

133540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

936

Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?

Sep 30, 4:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

292966

OptionProbability

Palantir

Other

OpenAI

Tesla

Lockheed Martin

Boeing

Facebook

Mistral AI

Shield AI

Deepmind

Inflection

Alibaba Group

EluetherAI

Waymo

Raytheon Technologies

Anthropic

Meta

Databricks

42

19

9

8

5

5

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.86%chance

101503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

607

Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?

Oct 8, 10:22 PMDec 23, 6:59 AM

11748

OptionProbability

Microsoft/OpenAI

Google (Alphabet)

Amazon/Anthropic

Other

[A Chinese Company]

Meta

Inflection AI

Tesla

IBM

Boston Dynamics (Hyundai)

Other

19

16

13

12

9

8

7

6

4

4

2

Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?

Oct 5, 2:30 AMDec 13, 7:59 AM

21733

OptionProbability

Meta

Other

Mistral AI

Bytedance

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

EluetherAI

Tesla

Anthropic

Inflection AI

Databricks

Alibaba Group

17

16

15

11

9

9

6

6

4

4

3

2

Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?

Nov 3, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21694

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Other (e.g. Inflection, xAI, Imbue, etc.)

Google DeepMind

Anthropic

39

36

14

12

Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?

Aug 27, 3:51 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

78.66%chance

20584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

954

Will an anime character modeled off of @repligate/janus be instantiated by nearcyan's Elysian labs by 2028

May 19, 11:30 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

48.08%chance

4160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

962

Will I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2035?

Oct 16, 9:56 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

74.73%chance

341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

89

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

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