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Prediction markets for Influence

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Which influencer will die while making content

Jan 19, 8:47 AMJan 26, 6:29 PM

51089

OptionProbability

NikocadoAvocado

xQc

TylerOlivera

skippy62able (L.A. Beast)

KentuckyBalliatics

DemolitionRanch

NileRed

Explosions&Fire

NurdRage

ThingsMadeHere

IDidAThing

BackyardScientist

MrBeast

Destiny

17

12

10

10

9

8

8

8

8

5

5

5

3

2

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

14413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

864

Will AR/VR technologies meaningfully influence my life as of 12/31/2030?

Oct 29, 3:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.74%chance

23379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

982

Will members of the Gale Family collectively receive over $50,000 by being family-style "Man-Influencers" (Manifold Influencers) by 2050?

Dec 30, 7:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.38%chance

9374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

156

Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?

Nov 4, 1:59 PMSep 10, 12:18 PM

24.66%chance

12303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.85%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

902

Will "You're an AI Expert – Not an Influencer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 18, 9:54 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.85%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

998

With in the decade the Will Be ai based Influencer personality with at least one million subscribers on YouTube or X?

Nov 8, 9:02 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

74.29%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

59

Who is on the Doppelganger / Good Old USA anti-influencer list of Russian opponents according to court documents?

Sep 13, 8:45 PMSep 7, 5:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Michael C. Moynihan

Destiny

Drew Pavlou

Francis Fukuyama

50

50

50

49

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