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Prediction markets for Influence

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will JD Vance integrate rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028?

Nov 9, 3:37 PMJan 17, 6:59 AM

211522

OptionProbability

No

Yes

Partial Influence

93

4

3

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Which influencer will die while making content

Jan 19, 8:47 AMJan 26, 6:29 PM

51089

OptionProbability

NikocadoAvocado

xQc

TylerOlivera

skippy62able (L.A. Beast)

KentuckyBalliatics

DemolitionRanch

NileRed

Explosions&Fire

NurdRage

ThingsMadeHere

IDidAThing

BackyardScientist

MrBeast

Destiny

17

12

10

10

9

8

8

8

8

5

5

5

3

2

Who is involved in the Russian influencer scheme (Doppelganger / Good Old USA), according to court documents?

Sep 7, 5:01 AMJul 1, 5:59 AM

5685

OptionProbability

Jill Stein

Tom Cotton

Ron Johnson

Nick Fuentes

Glenn Greenwald

Kari Lake

Ian Miles Cheong

Bret Weinstein

Lauren Boebert

Eric Weinstein

Jack Posobiec

Rand Paul

Lex Fridman

Donald Trump

62

57

55

54

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

47

41

17

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

14413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

864

Will AR/VR technologies meaningfully influence my life as of 12/31/2030?

Oct 29, 3:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.74%chance

23379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

982

Will members of the Gale Family collectively receive over $50,000 by being family-style "Man-Influencers" (Manifold Influencers) by 2050?

Dec 30, 7:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.38%chance

9374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

156

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.85%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

902

With in the decade the Will Be ai based Influencer personality with at least one million subscribers on YouTube or X?

Nov 8, 9:02 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

74.29%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

59

Who is on the Doppelganger / Good Old USA anti-influencer list of Russian opponents according to court documents?

Sep 13, 8:45 PMSep 7, 5:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Michael C. Moynihan

Destiny

Drew Pavlou

Francis Fukuyama

50

50

50

49

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