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Prediction markets for Information

Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.1%chance

165769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

297

It is possible for information to travel faster than the speed of light

Jan 8, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.27%chance

192304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

943

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

50.18%chance

171774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

965

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will a reliable useful neural device that transmits information about users thoughts be released before the end of 2028?

Nov 6, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.5%chance

181694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

917

Will someone have been fired from their job plausibly due to leaking information on Manifold Markets by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.15%chance

291309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

944

Trump Declassifies Major information regarding the JFK assassination.

Nov 8, 2:49 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM

41.32%chance

161305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.55%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

965

Are AI and its effects are the most important existential risk, given only public information available in 2021?

Mar 24, 2:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

89.19%chance

14354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

932

Information revealing an Elon Musk child being raised in China before end of 2030

Sep 12, 10:38 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

15%chance

5227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

60

Will the Ethereum L1 use quantum information transmission by 2035?

Aug 7, 12:39 AMJan 1, 1:36 AM

9.23%chance

7207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

145

Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

115

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