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Prediction markets for Information Technology

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

8132937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22319

3938

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

22.96%chance

9417451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

640

Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

6016771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

39%chance

9112352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1767

574

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

604670

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

24

12

10

10

9

6

1

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

1067

Richard Yang sells out to computer science at MIT by end of April 2026?

May 10, 2:17 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

53.13%chance

151307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1477

955

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.62%chance

21788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

968

Will the S&P 500 "Information Technology" sector exceed 30% by 2025?

Mar 23, 12:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.13%chance

6763

OptionVotes

NO

YES

796

15

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

41.7%chance

6320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

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