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Prediction markets for Infrastructure

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

975

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24.49%chance

291424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

914

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.22%chance

231071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

914

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.28%chance

12595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3648

3335

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Sep 23, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8582

OptionProbability

Before 2051

Before 2042

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

50

48

40

31

16

Will the US attack Iran's infrastructure before June 1st?

Apr 12, 12:32 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

46%chance

13382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Will Rystad's Gulf energy infrastructure repair estimate exceed 35 billion on June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 10:30 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

91.89%chance

2285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

291

14

Will Rystad's Gulf energy infrastructure repair estimate exceed 28 billion on June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 10:30 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

92.98%chance

2275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

359

50

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.04%chance

7235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

49.52%chance

2204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will Rystad's Gulf energy infrastructure repair estimate exceed 100 billion on June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 10:30 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

3%chance

140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

In 2030, will I think I was right about Habryka as a counterparty / Lightcone Infrastructure as a donation target?

Nov 3, 4:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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