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Prediction markets for INIT

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

31.84%chance

778757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

1069

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.6%chance

102953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

614

Will Brazil join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) until the end of 2027?

Apr 11, 2:47 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

25.62%chance

172215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1424

798

Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?

Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

90.35%chance

192063

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2645

628

Will a global initiative eradicate malaria worldwide by 2030?

Mar 26, 11:08 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10.35%chance

231608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1757

838

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.42%chance

81237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1965

509

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.61%chance

5770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1670

599

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.31%chance

19601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

940

Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?

Aug 25, 3:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

41.51%chance

19582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

957

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will AMF lack funding to implement effective initiatives before 2030?

Nov 13, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.71%chance

13196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

903

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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