Initial Findings Report News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17984322

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

YES

1679

610

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.31%chance

61585

OptionVotes

YES

5574

3482

In what year will we confirm that there is a "machine economy"?

Nov 12, 5:02 AMNov 19, 3:59 PM

71121

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

Other

2023

2024

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.68%chance

4780

OptionVotes

YES

4261

3904

Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide?

Jun 1, 11:50 PMJan 1, 12:48 AM

27.29%chance

9424

OptionVotes

YES

163

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.59%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

4357

3816

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 6:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2230

OptionProbability

7. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS insufficient

5. Before 2050, an AI system IS shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

1. Before 2030, there IS an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

3. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES doubles every 2 years

6. Before 2050, an AI system IS NOT shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

2. Before 2030, there IS NOT an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

4. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES NOT double every 2 years

8. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS NOT insufficient

Will BioAge's BGE-102 achieve its primary endpoint in the Phase 2 QUELL-CV trial before January 1, 2028?

Aug 6, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.16%chance

496

OptionVotes

YES

153

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Initial Findings Report News

Prediction markets for Initial Findings Report

Prediction markets for Initial Findings Report

Prediction markets for Initial Findings Report

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

In what year will we confirm that there is a "machine economy"?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide?

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Will BioAge's BGE-102 achieve its primary endpoint in the Phase 2 QUELL-CV trial before January 1, 2028?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

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