Initial Findings Report News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

16972924

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will a Cybertruck be reported to be involved in any FSD-related fatality by the end of 2025?

Aug 22, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.36%chance

132579

OptionVotes

YES

2794

358

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.31%chance

61585

OptionVotes

YES

5574

3482

Who is/will claim responsibility for Delhi Red fort explosion that occurred on 10 November 2025

Nov 10, 3:00 PMDec 31, 2:58 PM

9932

OptionProbability

Terrorist organization

No one claims responsibility / Remains undetermined

CNG cylinder malfunction/accident

Vehicle battery malfunction

Improvised explosive device (IED) - unaffiliated individual(s)

Pakistani Intelligence

Other

In what year will we confirm that there is a "machine economy"?

Nov 12, 5:02 AMNov 19, 3:59 PM

4903

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027

2028

2025

2023

2024

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide?

Jun 1, 11:50 PMJan 1, 12:48 AM

19.96%chance

7246

OptionVotes

YES

200

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.89%chance

3230

OptionVotes

YES

4071

3711

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 6:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2230

OptionProbability

7. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS insufficient

5. Before 2050, an AI system IS shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

1. Before 2030, there IS an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

3. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES doubles every 2 years

6. Before 2050, an AI system IS NOT shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

2. Before 2030, there IS NOT an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

4. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES NOT double every 2 years

8. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS NOT insufficient

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

4007

3989

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Initial Findings Report News

Prediction markets for Initial Findings Report

Prediction markets for Initial Findings Report

Prediction markets for Initial Findings Report

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will a Cybertruck be reported to be involved in any FSD-related fatality by the end of 2025?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Who is/will claim responsibility for Delhi Red fort explosion that occurred on 10 November 2025

In what year will we confirm that there is a "machine economy"?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

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