Initial Findings Report News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17074531

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.31%chance

61585

OptionVotes

YES

5574

3482

In what year will we confirm that there is a "machine economy"?

Nov 12, 5:02 AMNov 19, 3:59 PM

4903

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027

2028

2025

2023

2024

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide?

Jun 1, 11:50 PMJan 1, 12:48 AM

50.19%chance

7347

OptionVotes

YES

100

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.57%chance

3280

OptionVotes

YES

4054

3761

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 6:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2230

OptionProbability

7. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS insufficient

5. Before 2050, an AI system IS shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

1. Before 2030, there IS an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

3. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES doubles every 2 years

6. Before 2050, an AI system IS NOT shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

2. Before 2030, there IS NOT an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

4. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES NOT double every 2 years

8. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS NOT insufficient

Will the Clintons invoke the fifth amendment or executive privilege in their testimony regarding Epstein?

Feb 2, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4123

OptionProbability

At least one Clinton invokes executive privilege during testimony

At least one Clinton invokes the Fifth Amendment during testimony

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

4007

3989

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Initial Findings Report News

Prediction markets for Initial Findings Report

Prediction markets for Initial Findings Report

Prediction markets for Initial Findings Report

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

In what year will we confirm that there is a "machine economy"?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Will the Clintons invoke the fifth amendment or executive privilege in their testimony regarding Epstein?

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

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