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Prediction markets for INJ

USITC makes positive preliminary injury determination in Russian unwrought palladium antidumping case?

Aug 13, 10:46 AMDec 31, 11:42 AM

74.59%chance

67761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17131

5837

Neuralink clinical trials: will someone be seriously injured or killed?

May 26, 7:22 PMJan 19, 10:59 PM

11.9%chance

365967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

751

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.35%chance

132254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2943

340

Will Juan Soto spend more than 15 days on the injured list during the 2025 regular season?

Jan 2, 11:52 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

25.46%chance

71569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

584

Will any hack of a Tesla vehicle result in someone's death or serious injury before 2026?

Dec 4, 6:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.03%chance

151139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

875

[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Apr 26, 5:18 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM

19.77%chance

12994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3413

2468

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

38.69%chance

11944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

965

Conditional on Tumblr implementing support for following from ActivityPub, will they inject ads into the feed by EoY 2025?

Nov 26, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.21%chance

8463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

450

84

Collision between two occupied ships in space leading to injuries any time through 2035

Sep 19, 5:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.9%chance

7230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

282

135

Will the US Appeals Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

8100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Can my 55-Year-Old Father, who Has a Severe Spinal Injury, Walk Within 12 Months?

Mar 6, 11:33 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

53.17%chance

479

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

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