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Prediction markets for Injective

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.58%chance

156839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8427

3028

Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]

Oct 30, 3:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.39%chance

231444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

689

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

35.91%chance

151307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

766

Will my type 1 diabetes be cured before 2030

Jun 21, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.55%chance

171258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1262

792

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Jan 27, 7:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.15%chance

381228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2133

1742

Conditional on my RSI improving before 2030, what will the main reason be?

Aug 18, 9:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

221119

OptionProbability

Generic strength/health training

Platelet-Rich Plasma (PRP) injections

No clear reason

Tai Chi / Qigong

Other

Mind-Body Therapy (Sarno-inspired)

Learn to type with voice better

Physical Therapy

Massage tools

Therapy (Other)

Meditation/mindfulness

Breathing Techniques

Brain-computer interface

27

15

13

11

10

8

7

5

1

1

1

1

0

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

65.64%chance

18725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

839

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

965

Will Bryan Johnson inject minicircles/plasmids of the yamanaka factors into his body by 2026?

Sep 29, 6:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

8305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

107

Will Verda make better needles for the 2028 election?

Nov 6, 8:35 AMNov 9, 7:59 AM

42.96%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

868

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

83

76

57

51

12

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.11%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

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