Injective News

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

7177

3289

What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?

Jan 10, 10:21 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

382227

OptionProbability

Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with driver present

Cybersecurity incident caused by AI written code

Any incident involving prompt injection in production

Another deadly crime planned with the use of LLMs (after Trump hotel explosion)

Any incident that results in internal investigation, caused by the use of AI by law enforcement

Cybersecurity incident caused by AI inference in production

[Duplicate]

Serious incident involving persuasion or blackmail by AI system

Deadly incident involving autonomous manufacturing equipment

Serious incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior

Cybersecurity incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior

Deadly incident involving autonomous military equipment

Deadly incident caused by AI medical system or equipment

Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with no driver present

100

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Jan 27, 7:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39.58%chance

371178

OptionVotes

YES

2083

1816

Conditional on my RSI improving before 2030, what will the main reason be?

Aug 18, 9:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

221119

OptionProbability

Generic strength/health training

Platelet-Rich Plasma (PRP) injections

No clear reason

Tai Chi / Qigong

Other

Mind-Body Therapy (Sarno-inspired)

Learn to type with voice better

Physical Therapy

Massage tools

Therapy (Other)

Meditation/mindfulness

Breathing Techniques

Brain-computer interface

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

38.69%chance

11944

OptionVotes

YES

1259

794

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

67.82%chance

17695

OptionVotes

YES

1026

899

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

YES

1054

965

Conditional on Tumblr implementing support for following from ActivityPub, will they inject ads into the feed by EoY 2025?

Nov 26, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.21%chance

8463

OptionVotes

YES

450

Will Bryan Johnson inject minicircles/plasmids of the yamanaka factors into his body by 2026?

Sep 29, 6:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.8%chance

5218

OptionVotes

YES

274

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.11%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

1002

998

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

696

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Will either Lada Nuzhan or Jose Luis Ricon give in and inject semaglutide/tirzepatide at least 3 times before EOY 2025?

May 11, 8:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.13%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

115

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Prediction markets for Injective

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Prediction markets for Injective

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Conditional on my RSI improving before 2030, what will the main reason be?

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Conditional on Tumblr implementing support for following from ActivityPub, will they inject ads into the feed by EoY 2025?

Will Bryan Johnson inject minicircles/plasmids of the yamanaka factors into his body by 2026?

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Will either Lada Nuzhan or Jose Luis Ricon give in and inject semaglutide/tirzepatide at least 3 times before EOY 2025?

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