Injective News

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

7177

3289

What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?

Jan 10, 10:21 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

422658

OptionProbability

Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with driver present

Cybersecurity incident caused by AI written code

Cybersecurity incident caused by AI inference in production

Any incident involving prompt injection in production

Another deadly crime planned with the use of LLMs (after Trump hotel explosion)

Any incident that results in internal investigation, caused by the use of AI by law enforcement

[Duplicate]

Deadly incident involving autonomous manufacturing equipment

Serious incident involving persuasion or blackmail by AI system

Deadly incident involving autonomous military equipment

Serious incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior

Deadly incident caused by AI medical system or equipment

Cybersecurity incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior

Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with no driver present

100

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Jan 27, 7:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.15%chance

381228

OptionVotes

YES

2133

1742

Conditional on my RSI improving before 2030, what will the main reason be?

Aug 18, 9:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

221119

OptionProbability

Generic strength/health training

Platelet-Rich Plasma (PRP) injections

No clear reason

Tai Chi / Qigong

Other

Mind-Body Therapy (Sarno-inspired)

Learn to type with voice better

Physical Therapy

Massage tools

Therapy (Other)

Meditation/mindfulness

Breathing Techniques

Brain-computer interface

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

44.35%chance

131087

OptionVotes

YES

1140

913

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

65.64%chance

18725

OptionVotes

YES

1056

839

Conditional on Tumblr implementing support for following from ActivityPub, will they inject ads into the feed by EoY 2025?

Nov 26, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

8573

OptionVotes

YES

193

131

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

YES

1054

965

Will Bryan Johnson inject minicircles/plasmids of the yamanaka factors into his body by 2026?

Sep 29, 6:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

8305

OptionVotes

YES

167

107

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.11%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

1002

998

Will either Lada Nuzhan or Jose Luis Ricon give in and inject semaglutide/tirzepatide at least 3 times before EOY 2025?

May 11, 8:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.13%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

115

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Prediction markets for Injective

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Prediction markets for Injective

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Conditional on my RSI improving before 2030, what will the main reason be?

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Conditional on Tumblr implementing support for following from ActivityPub, will they inject ads into the feed by EoY 2025?

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Will Bryan Johnson inject minicircles/plasmids of the yamanaka factors into his body by 2026?

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Will either Lada Nuzhan or Jose Luis Ricon give in and inject semaglutide/tirzepatide at least 3 times before EOY 2025?

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