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Innovation News

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69%chance

12329807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2372

673

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.17%chance

334634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

620

Will blockchain gaming or blockchain features provide meaningful gameplay innovation to players in the next 4 years?

Dec 25, 9:19 PMJan 31, 2:59 AM

9.13%chance

453162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

899

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.42%chance

202731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3438

502

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

75.2%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2020

959

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

241458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

Will Aurora Innovation's self-driving trucks drive 100M miles by March 2027?

Mar 16, 8:43 AMMar 15, 6:59 AM

21.31%chance

5130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

97

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will the Responsible Innovation and Safe Expertise (RISE) Act of 2025 become law in the United States before 1 Jan 2027?

Jun 12, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.32%chance

498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.53%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Will 8,000+ clinical trials for innovative drugs be initiated globally in a single year before 2035?

Aug 24, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.94%chance

420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

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