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Prediction markets for INSAS

When will the AfD be the largest party in Germany according to polls? V2

May 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2110077

OptionProbability

Q3 2025

not before 2027

Q4 2025

first half of 2026

second half of 2026

May 2025

June 2025

46

23

15

9

8

0

0

Will Donald Trump assert an insanity or diminished capacity defense in any of his criminal cases by December 31, 2025?

Oct 16, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9%chance

516005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Elon's Department of Government Efficiency creates a leaderboard for the "most insanely dumb spending of tax dollars"

Nov 14, 12:15 PMApr 21, 4:59 AM

56.94%chance

3270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

870

The superintelligence will brainwash society into declaring alignment researchers (with high pdooms) insane.

Jun 25, 4:48 AMJan 1, 5:44 AM

45.08%chance

9165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

I'm insane by EOY?

Mar 29, 2:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.27%chance

777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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